In my last post I recounted some of the severe weather events that have already taken place here in the year 2023, a year that will almost certainly be recorded as the warmest in human history, or at least that is until 2024. To be honest I could have written two or three times as much as I did write in that post, extreme weather was basically everywhere this year and many locations around the world suffered for long periods of time or several times over.
The important thing to keep in mind is that in 2023 for the first time the average global temperature could cross over the 1.5ºC above pre-industrial average that scientists have been warning will bring ever greater climate change and the natural disasters that accompany it. If, as now predicted this year’s El Niǹo continues into 2024 then the world could remain above that threshold and next year’s weather could be even worse.
So with the evidence of climate change all around us is the human race as a whole finally waking up to the danger we ourselves are creating? Are governments and the media paying attention, enough attention so that some real progress will finally be made?
The answer of course is both yes and no. There are clear signs that a large fraction of society is becoming very concerned about the world’s environmental future and are ready to do something about it. As you might guess young people are in the forefront of this movement.
A main focus of the efforts undertaken so far by young people worried about their future has been in courtrooms around the world. This summer a lawsuit was filed in Montana by 16 of the state’s teenagers alleging that the state government has violated the Montana constitution by failing to “maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment for present and future generations.” The Judge in the case agreed, ruling that the state was violating the rights of young people when it enacted policies that prohibit the state from considering the effects on the environment of fossil fuel extraction in the state. Whether or not that judgment will affect the coal and oil industry in Montana remains to be seen, indeed the state is already appealing the decision. However the simple fact that a of that kind case could be brought and won in such a deep red state as Montana is clear evidence that more and more people are becoming concerned about our changing climate. Similar lawsuits have been filed by a group of teenagers in Hawaii and by young people suing the Federal Government as well.
Meanwhile in other countries a similar lawsuit was brought by 6 youngsters in Portugal, but these plaintiffs were a bit more ambitious, they decided to sue the entire European Union along with the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Russia and Turkey, 32 countries in all. In this case the plaintiffs allege that the increasing temperatures and drought conditions in their country are generating a Sahara desert like environment in Portugal that is again to the determent of their future lives. They blame this growing problem on the reluctance of the 32 governments to enact significant policies for fighting climate change, specifically legislation to curb CO2 emissions.
This suit, brought before the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg could actually have major consequences, at least for the EU countries. Again the idea is that the entire future lives of these young people are being harmed by the shortsighted policies of the present. The success for these lawsuits, even if only partial so far, will generate more and more such cases until governments are finally forced to take real action.
Which some governments are actually doing, if only in small steps so far. Here in the US last year the Biden administration, as a part of its Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), succeed in allocating the most money ever for subsidies to boost green energy production. This money is targeted not only for new solar and wind power projects but also to help reduce the cost of electric vehicles (EV) and to increase the number of EV charging stations throughout the nation. At the same time President Biden has announced the formation of his American Climate Corps (ACC), an organization patterned after the New Deal’s Civilian Conservation Corps and intended as a training program for young people leading to good jobs in green energy and climate mitigation. Although both the ACC and the IRA are insufficient to solve the coming climate crisis they are at least steps in the right direction, and can serve as foundations for further programs if the political will for fighting climate change increases.
A few individual states are also taking action. In California the state’s attorney general has filed a lawsuit against Exxon-Mobile, BP, Shell, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, all the big oil companies alleging that for decades they have been fully aware of the effect that fossil fuel emissions were having on the environment. The suit contends that the oil companies deliberately continued to minimize the threat of global warming while suppressing the data collected by their own scientists.
Meanwhile voters in Switzerland have passed a referendum calling for their government to enact legislation to curb greenhouse gas emissions by their country. The measure, which passed with 59.1% of the vote for and 40.9% against requires Switzerland to achieve ‘net zero’ carbon emissions by 2050. More immediately it provides more than 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.3 billion US dollars) to help Swiss citizens and companies develop greener energy programs.
In parallel with the actions taken by environmental activists and groups there has been a significant increase in the coverage of climate change in many, although certainly not all, media outlets. During the heat of the Summer CNN and MSNBC devoted extensive time to the major environmental stories like Phoenix’s streak of days over 110ºF, the wildfires in Canada and the resulting smoke that drifted down into the US, and of course the great loss of life in the wildfire in Maui. So important were these stories that even Fox news was forced to cover them to some extent. The winner for news coverage of climate change however has to be the Weather Channel, which has even created a daily program, Pattrn, devoted to climate change and other environmental issues.
So there is progress, even if only in small steps so far. But as Isaac Newton pointed out, “For every action there is an equal an opposite reaction,” and the climate deniers have been busy as well. So, for every attempt at government action to fight global warming there has been an effort to deny or hide the facts, such as the decision by the Florida Department of Education, as directed by the state’s Governor Ron DeSantis, to approve climate change denying videos for use in the classroom.
At the same time court cases brought by citizens concerned about the future of our planet are opposed by lawyers and officials bought and paid for by the petroleum industry who care about nothing but their next quarter’s profit. The lawsuit won in Montana is already being appealed while other cases are being delayed or obstructed.
Finally, even as the overwhelming number of environmental stories has forced Fox news to actually cover global warming they still try with all of their might to obscure the issue by making such absurd claims as that the extreme temperatures endured by Phoenix this summer were caused by ‘the heat island effect’. ‘Heat Islands’ caused by the concrete and asphalt in a city is a real enough phenomenon but one that doesn’t explain the equally high temperatures in the desert around Phoenix, nor the high temperatures in Greece, or Portugal or Vietnam or etc, etc, etc.
About the only thing we can say for certain concerning the world’s reaction to 2023 being the hottest year on record is that the political war over global warming is heating up. Right now world leaders have gathered in the United Arab Emirates for the COP28 meeting on climate change. As I write these words there is considerable division over whether the phrase ‘phasing out of fossil fuels’ manages to get included in the final report that every country must agree to or will the entire conference break apart over the issue. I’ll be sure to keep you informed.
Addendum: The COP28 final accord has been agreed upon in Dubai and it’s something of a victory for the struggle to fight climate change. For the first time the conferences final document does for the first time explicitly mention fossil fuels as the leading cause of climate change. (Think about that, it took world leaders 28 years just to finally agree that coal, oil and natural gas are causing climate change.) In addition the final accord also calls for a ‘Transitioning away from’ the use of fossil fuels.
Now don’t get too excited. The timetable for that transitioning is very non-specific, and there are no enforcement provisions of any kind. Any country that wants to can simply ignore their commitment any time they choose. Nevertheless getting 198 nations, many of them fossil fuel producers or are dependent on fossil fuels, to agree to someday getting rid of those pollutants is a major achievement.
Perhaps the climate disasters of the past year have finally made the nations of the world take notice of the disaster looming not too far in the future. The nations of the world have made a commitment; it’s going to be up to all of us to see to it that they keep it.