Everyone knows that the key to a better job, a more interesting career and, saving the best for last, a higher income is education. On average a person with a college degree earns 83% more than the average person with only a high school degree. Also, at any given time the high school graduate is on average twice as likely to be unemployed as someone with their bachelor’s degree.
In fact the advantages of a college education are so undeniable that millions of young Americans are willing to spend four of their most productive years, and subject themselves to years of college loan payments in order to get their hands on that piece of sheepskin. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic more than 18 million students were enrolled in undergraduate programs at colleges and universities across this nation. Only China and India, with their massive populations, have more college students than the US.
That was before the pandemic. Like so much else in nations around the world Covid-19 has gotten a chokehold on education here in the US and is slowly draining away the strength of the collegiate system. I’m not just talking about virtual classrooms or having to get vaccinated and wear a mask.
The real harm that is being caused by Covid-19 is the large number of high school graduates who are choosing not to go to college because of Covid itself along with the disruptions due to the disease. In 2020 student enrollment in America’s colleges declined by almost 630,000 students (3.5%) while in 2021 the decline was more than 460,000 (3.1%) for a total decline in two years of more than a million students (and 6.6%).
Worst still the biggest decline was seen in Community Colleges, the most financially reasonable path to a degree, and therefore the path most chosen by lower income and minority students. Here enrollment was down by a whopping 13.2% since 2019. On the other hand the most expensive private colleges and universities saw a slight increase in enrollment which shows that, pandemic or not, America’s rich families know very well the importance of their children getting that bachelor’s degree.
Now many of those young people who have decided not to enroll in college right out of high school may eventually to do so once the pandemic is finally ended. Statistics have shown however that the success rate for a student getting their degree drops dramatically as a function of the time between high school and college. Meanwhile, those who put off going to college face an ever increasing risk of their simply never getting back in the educational system.
Then there is the possibility that this pandemic induced decline could become a trend. According to Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, “The longer this continues, the more it starts to build its own momentum as a cultural shift and not just a short-term effect of the pandemic disruptions.”
Even back when our nation was just a collection of colonies the people who would become Americans understood the importance of higher education. And so they founded schools like Harvard, William and Mary, The University of Pennsylvania and the College of New Jersey, now Princeton University. In the midst of our bloodiest war Abraham Lincoln took time out to push for and implement the Morrill Land Grant Act of 1862, which led to the founding of dozens of State Colleges and Universities, which propelled this country to become the richest and most powerful nation on Earth.
Will the Americans of today follow the wisdom of their forbears or will they come to look upon a college degree as something just for the rich. If that happens we will have truly lost the American dream.
We all know that our memories are to a large degree who we are. All of our loves, and hates, all of our opinions are formed from past experiences that are stored in memory. I suppose that’s why stories, real and fictional about people with amnesia are so popular. And then there’s always the idea of reliving a memory, of going back to either enjoy once again the best time of our life or perhaps to fix some mistake we made in the past.
That last notion is the idea behind ‘Recursion’ a recent novel by Author Blake Crouch. Barry Sutton is a New York City Detective who is investigating a suicide that is linked to ‘False Memory Syndrome’ (FMS) a rare condition where a person suddenly acquires complete and detailed memories of a life they never lived, a mental jolt that causes many of them to kill themselves. Helena Smith is a neuroscientist who is trying to develop a method of recording memories in the hopes that it will lead to a treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, which her mother is beginning to suffer from.
Turns out that what Doctor Smith has invented is a time machine, a way of literally going back into a memory in order to change the past. One interesting thing about the time travel in ‘recursion’ is that making the jump requires the release of the strong hormones that accompany death. In other words you have to die in the present in order to pop back into one of your memories. And if you do change the past those people whose lives you’ve altered will suddenly acquire the memories of their original lives when time progresses to the moment when you used the time machine to pop back, that’s the FMS.
Now the physics of time traveling through memory in ‘Recursion’ is never really explained and the ‘Grandfather Effect’, the logical loop where you go into the past and kill your grandfather as a boy so you are never born so how can you go into the past to kill your grandfather, is barely mentioned. That said once you accept the rules of time travel in ‘Recursion’ the novel is tightly written and very well thought out.
Doctor Smith’s research is funded by one of those techno-billionaires named Marcus Slade who somehow seems to understand the full capabilities of the machine before Helena does. Slade is the first to try to exploit the possibilities of time travel but it isn’t long before the DoD gets involved and when the technical information for the machine gets hacked there are soon a dozen different entities trying to impose their preferred version of the past and reality itself begins to crack under the pressure of multiple pasts.
I won’t go any further but the breakdown of time itself, along with Helena and Barry’s attempts to fix it are very well written. It fact the whole of ‘Recursion’ is very well thought out and composed.
I do have a couple of very minor complaints. First of all the use of a techno-billionaire as the villain is becoming trite even if Blake Crouch does put a nice twist on him. Second, the novel was written around 2018 and the main action of the story, the breakdown of time occurs in 2018 so it’s already not happened! I would have placed the story at least a few years in the future, say 2028 in order to not have the problem of time making it false even as it was being published.
Other than that I cannot recommend ‘Recursion’ strongly enough. This is one of the best time travel stories I’ve read, right up there with Wells’ original ‘Time Machine’ and Bradbury’s ‘The sound of Thunder’. If you like Science Fiction in general you will certainly enjoy ‘Recursion’ but if you like time travel stories you absolutely have to read it.
One thing that I’ve always loved about science in general and physics in particular is how it all connects up, how things that seem at first glance to have almost nothing to do with one another are in many ways the same phenomenon. Take a ball bouncing up and down on a spring and light waves, what could they have in common. But both are described by the same mathematics, simple harmonic motion.
Because of all those connections a scientist who is studying one subject may serendipitously make a major discovery in a completely different subject. A case in point is the discovery of X-rays by Karl Roentgen who was actually studying the flow of electricity through a vacuum in a device called a Crooke’s tube. ‘Accidental’ discoveries of that kind are numerous in the history of science, at least to those who are prepared for them.
Just a few months ago I discussed the Lofar Radio Telescope that consists of a network of radio antennas spread across northwestern Europe but that are concentrated in the Netherlands, see post of 15 September 2021. That radio telescope, like all large telescopes, is intended to study astronomical objects that are thousands if not millions of light-years from Earth. However the Lofar receivers cannot operate whenever there is a lightning storm nearby because lightning generates so much radio noise that it swamps the weak signals coming from outer space.
So, since the Lofar instruments couldn’t observe the universe whenever there was lightning around they decided to do the next best thing, observe the lightning. And so, during a series of lightning storms in the summer of 2018 the Lofar installations in the Netherlands used the radio signals generated by the lightning bolts themselves to make detailed images of exactly how a lightning bolt is triggered inside a cloud.
Scientists have been trying for decades to understand exactly what causes a lightning bolt but you can’t see into a cloud, and attempts to gather data by balloons or rockets or airplanes have the problem of not being in precisely the right place at precisely the right time. According to Brian Hare, a lightning specialist at the University of Groningen and co-author of a paper detailed the results of the study, “It’s kind of embarrassing. It’s (lightning) the most energetic process on the planet, we have religions centered around this thing, and we have no idea how it works.”
That’s where Lofar comes in because the network of low frequency antennas, technically known as a phased array, can examine the entire cloud continuously while still getting data from volumes of space that are only a few meters on a side. Of course that means that a lot of data is being gathered, all of which has to be analyzed. Nevertheless, the Lofar study has given researchers their best ever look at a lightning bolt and in particular just what conditions are needed to trigger one.
Until now there were two different theories as to what triggered a lightning bolt. Both agree that the main electric field in a cloud is generated as hail falls while ice crystals rise. This rubbing generates static electricity exactly the same way as your shoes do as you walk across a thick carpet on a cold winter’s day. It’s the exact mechanism that triggers the bolt where the two theories differ.
The first theory is that cosmic ray particles coming from outer space collide with electrons in air atoms generating a cascade of charged particles that initiates the bolt. The second theory starts with needle shaped ice crystals that collide turbulently with each other. These collisions cause the crystals to become positively charged at one end and negatively charged at the other, technically this is known as an electric dipole. Now the positive ends of one crystal will be attracted to the negative end of another and before long you will have many crystals lined up producing one long electric dipole. These long dipoles form ribbons of ionized air that are called streamers. Before long the streamers become hot and conductive enough to turn into a leader along which a full bolt of lightning can propagate.
The data from the Lofar observations support the second theory. According to main author Christopher Sterpka with the department of Physics and Astronomer at the University of New Hampshire, “this is what we’re seeing. After the avalanche stops, we see a lightning leader nearby. In the data from Lofar the entire process was seen to occur within a 70 meter wide region deep within a cloud.
The data from Lofar hasn’t resolved all of the questions however. In particular exactly how streamers turn into leaders is still subject to debate. These processes happen on a millimeter-scale but the researchers hope that further observations by Lofar may yield clues to resolve even those questions.
And so a radio telescope designed to observe objects and events far outside our solar system has answered a long standing question about lightning here on Earth. That’s what I like about science.
The beginning of a new year traditionally is the time for people to review the progress, or otherwise, that was made during the year that has just ended. To that end this post will concern itself with an assessment of the impact of global warming caused by CO2 emissions on our planet in general and the United States in particular during 2021. This focus on the US is not due so much to my being an American but rather because I have had access to more information on the effects of climate change here than that in other parts of the world.
But let’s begin with the world as a whole. A report issued by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, whose task it is to monitor global temperature as well as other key indicators of the world’s climate, announced that 2021 was the fifth-warmest year ever recorded. And if that wasn’t bad enough, 2021 makes the last seven years the seven hottest years ever.
Because of factors like El Niño or La Niña the world’s temperature does fluctuate from year to year so that you really ought to look at tends over many years if not decades. 2021 for example was a La Niña year, which probably helped to keep the planet a little cool, if you call fifth hottest year ever a little cool. But still, the fact that the last seven years are the seven hottest ever recorded means that we have now gone beyond a rising statistical trend. The world’s temperatures are not just rising they are accelerating, so things are only going to get worse in the next few years. In fact these latest measurements are confirmation that the world’s temperature has risen about 1.1ºC above that of pre-industrial levels. That is a conservative estimate according to Kim Cobb the director of the Global Change Program at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
And so the world now suffers from environmental disasters that are increasing in both number and intensity. The magnitude of that increase is being monitored here in the United States by the Federal Emergency Management Agency or FEMA. In a report just published FEMA has cataloged 21 separate natural disasters during 2021, each of which was responsible for more than a billion dollars worth of damage and with an aggregate price tag of $145 billion.
The catastrophes run the gamut of severe weather emergencies from hurricanes to tornadoes to wildfires caused by severe, prolonged draughts. Hurricane Ida, see my post of 8 september 2021, was the most destructive of all the disasters giving the country a one-two punch. First as it came ashore as at category 4 hurricane in Louisiana and then a few days later as it exited through the Mid-Atlantic States. The estimated cost of Ida has been pegged at about $75 billion putting it in fifth place for all time damage caused by a hurricane. Hurricane Nicholas along with Tropical Storms Fred and Else also added to the cost of tropical weather.
There was plenty of severe weather besides that coming up from the tropics however. Nearly every portion of the country suffered from tornadoes, flooding, hail and those strong, straight-line winds known as derechos. California, in the middle of a record breaking drought nevertheless was struck by severe storms that led to flooding just a year ago in January of 2021.
On the other hand the western half of the country suffered more from excessive heat and drought induced wildfires than too much rain. Climate models have shown this to be a consequence of global warming, areas that get a fair amount of rain will now get a deluge while those areas that always seem to need rain will become deserts. The rising heat caused by CO2 emissions extenuates local conditions, its not just hotter temperatures while everything else stays the same.
One thing that really stands out about the severe weather in 2021 was the number of destructive storms and wildfires in December, normally a quiet, peaceful time of year weather wise. The tornadoes that ripped through Kentucky on the 10th of December and the Marshall Creek fire in Colorado in the days after Christmas were evidence that any part of the year can now have severe weather events costing billions. See my post of January 2022.
So the total cost of weather disasters in 2021 was $145 billion. Looking at the last five years combined the full amount dollar figure comes to a staggering $750 billion. And of course that’s just the dollar cost, during 2021 at least 688 people died in those 20 disasters.
So what is the federal government doing to try to mitigate if not halt the growing number and intensity of climate change induced weather emergencies? Well, President Biden’s ‘Build Back Better’ plan does include $550 billion to fight climate change, but of course that’s being held up in the Senate where even some democrats are balking at the total package’s $2 trillion dollar price tag.
Even if Build Back Better does pass that $550 billion is for the next ten years, $55 billion a year in other words. Meanwhile the damage being caused by climate change is now averaging $150 billion a year. Worst still, that $55 billion a year is all carrot, the stick of proposed penalties for continued use of fossil fuels have all been removed from any legislation.
The phrase ‘Too Little, Too Late’ comes to mind and we have to ask how much weather related destruction it will take before our elected leaders start to take global warming seriously, $500 billion a year, a trillion? Even when they finally get around to doing something it will take years to implement, all while the planet just gets hotter and climate change more severe. So hold on to your hat mt friends ’cause there’s a big storm coming!
Launched on Christmas day, the 25th of December 2021, the James Webb Space Telescope has so far performed flawlessly. For that launch the telescope’s enormous mirror and tennis court sized sunshield had to be folded up in order to fit inside the nose cone of the Arian 5 rocket. Once in outer space the unfolding and deployment of the various parts of the space telescope would constitute the most complex and delicate remote operation ever carried out by a spacecraft. Engineers involved spoke about Webb’s self-assembly as having thirty ‘single points of failure’. That is at thirty different places in its deployment process where if a failure occurred the $10 billion dollar telescope was simply a failure.
The launch itself was of course one of those single points. The Arian 5 rocket however has become the workhorse of the European Space Agency and it did its job of placing Webb not only into orbit but also on a trajectory for the L2 Lagrangian point on the other side of the Earth from the Sun. See my post of 6 January 2017 for a description of the Lagrangian points. From that location Webb will be in a stable position where it can use its sunshield to permanently protect its delicate instruments from the heat of the Sun.
And Webb’s Cameras and other instruments need to be shielded from the Sun because, unlike the Hubble space telescope the James Webb Space Telescope is designed to photograph astronomical objects in the infrared (IR) portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. Astronomers have for a long time wished for a large space telescope the operates in the IR which will allow them to be able to see through the gas clouds in our galaxy to the places where stars are being born or where the remnants of recent supernova explosions are hiding.
Most importantly however, because of the expansion of the Universe, the light from the very first stars and galaxies has been ‘red-shifted’ so that they are invisible to Hubble. It is these first stars and galaxies that Webb is designed to study, giving astronomers for the first time observations of how the early universe went from the fiery chaos of the big bang to the myriad of astronomical objects we see today.
Shortly after its launch Webb deployed both its antennas and solar array in order for it to both have power and be able to communicate with its ground controllers. These two steps are necessary for nearly every space satellite however so even though a problem at either one of these steps could have led to a total failure engineers were confident that all would go well.
The risky operations began with the unfurling and tightening of the five sheets that constituted the sunshield. Each sheet is about the size of a tennis court and made of highly reflective material. The five sheets are necessary not only to provide enough insulation to keep the instruments cool but also to act as protection for the telescope from micrometeorites. The control engineers at John’s Hopkins University in Baltimore took their time with the sunshield because such an operation had never before been attempted in space. The unfurling began on the third day after launch and took nearly a week in total.
Once the sunshield was fully deployed the next critical operation was the deployment of the telescope’s secondary mirror that sits out in front of the main mirror and reflects the light gathered by the main mirror back to where the telescope’s instruments are. The deployment of the secondary mirror occurred on day 11 and although the operation only took a few minutes you can be certain those were nerve wracking minutes for all of NASA for if the secondary mirror failed to lock into its proper position the entire telescope would be useless. The deployment of the secondary mirror went off without any problems however.
At this point only the deployment of the two side panels of the telescope’s main mirror remained to be accomplished. Each of the two side panels held three of the main mirror’s 18 hexagonal sections. The left side panel was successfully deployed on day 11 after launch while the right side panel was deployed the next day.
Once the two side panels were locked into position the riskiest part of the Webb’s deployment was accomplished and the NASA team who had built and launched the telescope could breath a sigh of relief. Nevertheless there’s still plenty to do before the telescope can begin its mission of observing the Universe. For one thing each of the 18 hexagonal main mirror sections have to be precisely focused by its own set of actuator motors in order for all of the sections to act together as one big mirror. This operation is no longer a single point of failure however for Webb can still operate even if a single mirror section is out of position.
Nevertheless the launch and configuration in space of the James Webb Space Telescope has gone amazingly well so far. On the 25th of January the space telescope successfully reached its L2 home and is now exactly where its mission planners intended, another few months of instrument alignment and calibration and Webb will be ready to begin its mission. There is every reason to hope that it won’t be long before the Webb space telescope will be showing us parts of our Universe that we never imagined existed.
Several times in these posts I have mentioned how it seems that every time scientists study the intelligence of animals they discover that the creatures we share this planet with are a lot smarter than we ever thought they were. A case in point is a new paper from Eotvos Lorand University in Budapest Hungary. The study was conceived by post-Doctoral neuroethologist Laura Cuaya when she moved to Budapest from her hometown of Mexico City with her eight year old dog Kun-Kun, a border collie.
Settling in to her new home Doctor Cuaya wondered if Kun-Kun, who had been exposed to only Spanish during his life, was aware that the people around him were now speaking a different language. Now Doctor Cuaya had used Kun-Kun in some of her experiments before, training the collie to sit still inside an MRI machine while she showed the dog various items and recording the way Kun-Kun’ brain reacted to different stimuli.
For the study Doctor Cuaya put Kun-Kun in an MRI and played a woman’s voice reciting a line from the story ‘The Little Prince’ in both Spanish and Hungarian and following that with a few words that were totally nonsense. Both the words and the speaker were unfamiliar to Kun-Kun. While the voice spoke to the dog the MRI recorded how the animal’s brain reacted.
She then performed the same experiment with seventeen other dogs aged three to eleven years old. The breeds of the dogs were five golden retrievers; six border collies, two Australian shepherds, one labradoodle, one cocker spaniel and three dogs of mixed breeds. One of the dogs, like Kun-Kun had only ever heard Spanish while the other sixteen were native Hungarian dogs. All of the dogs had been trained previously to sit quietly in the MRI and none were confined in any way during the tests.
The results were striking, not only were the dogs able to distinguish ‘their ‘ own familiar language from the foreign one, as evidenced by different areas of the brain reacting, but they could also differentiate the foreign language from the nonsense words. According to co-author Doctor Attila Andics, the head of the department of ethology at Eotvos Lorand. “The interesting thing here is that there was a difference in the brain response to the familiar and unfamiliar language.”
The study also discovered some differences in the dogs who were better able to make the distinction in the languages. The first thing that the researchers noticed was the older the dog was the more pronounced was the difference in their brain function between their ‘native’ language and the foreign language. It seems therefore that, as opposed to the old adage ‘you can’t teach an old dog new tricks’ dogs do in fact continue to learn the language of the people around them throughout their lives.
The scientists also noticed one other, even more unexpected thing, the dogs with the longer snouts also proven to be better able to distinguish the different languages. Doctor Cuaya speculates that the dogs with the longer snouts were mainly sheep dogs for whom being better attuned to human language, human commands is a part of their breeding.
Dog owners have always known just how smart their four legged friends can be. And like anyone the more opportunity you give a dog to be smart the smarter they will become. As doctor Cuaya puts it, “Out results show that dogs learn from their social environments, even when we don’t teach them directly. So just continue involving your dogs in your family, and give them opportunities to continue learning.” I think that pretty much says it all don’t you?
Let me begin today but reminding everyone of the problem of Dark Matter. Over the last 70-80 years as astronomers studied the dynamic behavior of the galaxies they found that the gravity of the objects that they could see, i.e. the stars that shined, was not sufficient to account for the way galaxies moved. There had to be some form of missing mass, some kind of dark matter in galaxies in order to explain their dynamics.
Back in the 1980s when I was an undergraduate the ideas about Dark Matter had basically coalesced into two types of matter. These two classes of matter were given the corny names of Machos, meaning Mass Concentrations, and WIMPS meaning Weakly Interacting Massive Particles. Mass Concentrations were thought to be composed of ordinary particles like protons, neutrons and electrons and could be anything from small black holes to dark stars, given the name brown dwarfs, or even smaller objects like planets.
Now astronomers didn’t like the idea of having to look between the stars for small objects that didn’t shine by their own light, so they didn’t like Machos. Let’s face it telescopes are the main tool of astronomers and telescopes gather light from objects that shine like stars.
On the other hand physicists loved the idea of WIMPs because at the time they were coming up theories of ‘Supersymmetry’ that predicted the existence of a large number of massive particles some of which could be WIMPs. So starting in the 1990s Machos were largely ignored while everybody went looking for WIMPs either in outer space or at the big atom smashers like the Tevatron at Fermilab or the new Large Hadron Collider at CERN.
Problem is that after thirty years of searching no particles that could be WIMPs have been found. And now it seems that the wind has shifted and maybe it’s time to take another look at Machos.
For one thing astronomers have new, bigger, better instruments that are more capable of looking for objects that don’t shine at visible wavelengths. Just a few months ago I published a post about how astronomers are beginning to discover large numbers of Brown Dwarf stars, objects too big to be called planets but too small to ignite nuclear fusion in their cores so they do not shine like a star. See my post of 22 September 2021.
Now a new study from the European Southern Observatory in Chile and Bordeaux University has announced the discovery of as many as 170 rouge planets, that is planets that do not orbit any star but rather move through the Milky Way all on their own. The rogue planets were discovered in a star forming region of the galaxy relativity close to our solar system in the constellations of Scorpius and Ophiuchus.
It was the fact that the rogue planets were very young, and therefore still warm that enabled the astronomers to find them in the infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum. Even so the astronomers at Bordeaux had to shift through observations accumulated over 20 years and still aren’t certain how many rogue planets they’ve found, the best estimate being 70 to 170 Jupiter sized worlds.
Still if the star forming regions in space are also producing large numbers of solitary planets who knows how many older rogue planets there could be between the stars. Could there be as many rogue planets as there are stars? Or maybe even more? Finding out just how many rogue planets there really are could be a difficult task, remember once the planet cools down like our earth did after a few million years they’ll be almost impossible to find.
And there’s one more candidate for a Macho because the possibility that there could be large numbers of small, ‘primordial’ black holes in the Universe is once again being seriously discussed. These would be black holes with a mass that of a planet that formed in the first seconds after the big bang and have just been floating around ever since then. Such black holes would also be very difficult to find, unless of course one of them came inside our solar system.
So maybe we don’t need physics beyond the standard model in order to explain Dark Matter. If there are a lot more Brown Dwarfs than we ever imagined, more Rogue Planets and more primordial Black Holes maybe Dark Matter is just protons, neutrons and electrons in objects that don’t shine by their own light. Machos may not be as exciting as WIMPs, but reality is what it is and after thirty years of failing to find any exotic elementary particles maybe we need to give Machos a rethink!
When ‘Limits to Growth’ was first published back in 1972 the very idea that a computer program could, let alone should be used to predict an end to what everyone considered to be human progress upset a great number of people. After all, in the years following the end of World War 2 the world had seen unprecedented growth. Hundreds of millions of people in the developed countries of the world, the middle class, had achieved a level of material wealth beyond that of even the very rich just a few generations earlier. Automobiles, homes in the suburbs, vacations in far off places by air travel and, perhaps best of all television were just the more visible signs of a progress that it seemed would never end.
In fact one of the most criticized aspects of ‘Limits to Growth’ was the fact that the authors used all of that evidence of progress as a sign that ‘the end was near’! The faster the rate of progress, the higher the speed of growth they maintained the sooner human civilization will smack into one or another of the limits imposed by a finite Earth like a speeding car hitting a brick wall.
And to be honest ‘Limits to Growth’ is in many ways an expansion of and refinement of the old model of Thomas Malthus who in his 1798 essay ‘On the Principle of Population’ pointed out that since population increases geometrically while the supply of food only increases arithmetically when times are good it isn’t long before there comes a crash and large numbers of people starve. But of course Malthus was wrong, everybody knows that, the world’s population today is nearly ten times what it was in his day and yet now most people are better fed than they were 250 years ago. So Malthus was wrong, end of story.
That was fifty years ago when the first edition of ‘Limits to Growth’ was published. Since that time the pace of the world’s economic growth has slowed and much of what the authors suggested might happen is in fact occurring. Notice I said suggested might happen, not predicted, throughout the book the authors try to make it clear that they are not in the business of predicting the future. Rather they, and their computer analysis, are trying to assess possible futures.
And most of all what the authors warn us about is that our modern civilization, unlike that of Malthus, has many limits, not just food production. And in the last fifty years agricultural land degradation, decreasing fish stocks have occurred alongside declining reserves of oil and gas and increasing pollution and greenhouse gas induced climate change. As our technology has grown so has the number of limits that we are approaching. Whether it be non-renewable resources like oil or renewable ones that are being overused like fish stocks, or if it’s the buildup of pollutants far faster than the environment has a chance to clean them up there are now so many limits that technology and a free market can’t fix all of the problems at the same time.
So the authors of the original ‘Limits to Growth’ have published an update, including much of the data that has been gathered over the last 50 years and modifying their program by assessing what it was they got right back in 1972, and what they got wrong. And it’s important to point out that the author’s conclusions aren’t all doom and gloom. In fact the last two chapters of ‘Limits to Growth’ are devoted to the development of a sustainable society, there’s that word sustainable that we hear about all the time nowadays. Well the authors of ‘Limits to Growth’ were talking about a sustainable future 50 years ago and it’s still the best hope of avoiding a crash.
As I said above, growth over the last 50 years has become strained; in much the same fashion that ‘Limits to Growth’ suggested it would it its first edition. Time is now running out, we can either choose to limit our growth ourselves, to achieve a sustainable society, or we can continue to proceed as we have the last 300 years and crash into one or more of the limits that nature will soon impose upon us. ‘Limits to Growth’ is a book that needs to be read, needs to be talked about, and needs to be understood today, because there’s precious little time left.
Dinosaur eggs are as you might guess among the rarest of fossils and eggs with a nearly hatched baby dinosaur still inside the rarest of the rare. For that reason alone the discovery of an almost perfectly preserved dinosaur embryo from the late cretaceous is newsworthy. The egg was found in the southern region of China called Ganzhou and is the subject of a new paper by paleontologists at the China University of Geosciences in Beijing and the University of Birmingham in the UK. The embryo has been identified as belonging to a species of toothless theropod dinosaur of the genus Oviratorosaur that is thought to be closely related to the early birds. The unhatched baby dinosaur has even been given the name ‘Yingliang’.
But as the researchers cleaned and prepared their specimen they quickly realized that their find was even more important, for the position of the baby dino inside its egg was unlike that of other known dinosaur embryos but identical to that of modern birds shortly before they hatch. The position is known as ‘tucking’ where the baby chick puts its back to the blunt side of the egg and tucks its head between its legs.
This ‘tucking’ posture has long been thought to be a unique in birds but the evidence of Yingliang clearly shows that that it must have evolved much earlier and that at least some dinosaurs also acquired the behavior. According to Professor Steve Brusatte of the University of Edinburgh who was a part of the research team: “This little pre-natal dinosaur looks just like a baby bird curled in its egg, which is yet more evidence that many features characteristic of today’s birds first evolved in their dinosaur ancestors.”
But even as the dinosaurs were evolving into our modern birds other types of reptiles were returning to the seas in much the same fashion as today’s whales and dolphins did millions of years later. The most diverse of these aquatic reptiles were the Ichthyosaurs, literally fish-reptiles who swam Earth’s oceans throughout the time of the dinosaurs. Although shaped like fish, ichthyosaurs were air breathing reptiles some of whom at least are known to have given birth to live young.
Now a new fossil discovered in the Fossil Hill Member of the Augusta Mountains in Nevada is giving the ichthyosaurs a new record, that of being the first animals to reach gigantic, whale sized proportions. Excavated and studied by paleontologists from the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County the species has been given the name Cymbospondylus youngorum and based upon the bones of it’s skull, forefin, shoulder and part of its backbone the animal probably reached a full length of 17 meters, the size of a modern Sperm Whale. And like the Sperm Whale C youngorum was a predator, probably living off of ammonites, those extinct relatives of squid and octopus whose fossils have been found in abundance in the same rocks as C youngorum.
The Fossil Hill deposits in Nevada have been dated to the mid-Triassic period some 246 million years ago which makes them only a few million years after the very first ichthyosaurs took to the oceans. That such a huge creature could evolve so quickly is amazing, it took the ancestors of the whales nearly ten times as long to become the giants that we know today.
In fact ichthyosaurs and cetaceans have other characteristics in common as well including the fact that each family of animals first appeared shortly after a mass extinction event. In fact the similarities are so close that Dr. Eva Maria Griebeler of the University of Mainz in Germany is doing a comparative study of the evolution of ichthyosaurs and whales in an effort to better understand the process of evolution in general.
And speaking of big animals my final story for this month concerns a specimen of the largest ever discovered fossil bug. Now to be honest the term ‘bug’ is really only supposed to apply to insects of the order Hemiptera, insects like Aphids, Cicadas and Bed Bugs and the fossil we’re talking about isn’t even an insect, it’s a millipede, but the media has insisted on calling it “the biggest bug that ever lived” and who am I to argue.
The fossil was discovered in a chunk of sandstone that broke off from a cliff along the beach at Howick Bay in Northumberland in Northern England. According to Neil Davies, a professor of Geology at the University of Cambridge the fossil was found by a former doctoral student. “It was a complete fluke of a discovery.”
The fossil belongs to a genus of millipedes known as Arthropleura, of which two smaller specimens are known from Germany. The specimen from Northumberland measured some 55 cm in width and 2.63 meters in length and could have weighted as much as 50 kilograms. And if you think that’s a big bug there’s more because the paleontologists at Cambridge think that the fossil they found is just the molt of an animal, the discarded outer skin of an arthropod that would grow even bigger before its new skin hardened. Such empty shells usually break apart shortly after molting so to find a complete specimen is remarkable.
And remarkable is a good word for all of the fossils I’ve described this month. Today’s Earth contains many wield and wonderful lifeforms but the more we look at the past the more remarkable whole the history of life becomes.
Edward O. Wilson, one of the leading thinkers on evolution and the natural world during the 20th and early 21st centuries died on the 26th of December at the age of 92. Throughout his 46 year career at Harvard University’s Museum of Comparative Zoology Wilson used his study of ant behavior and ant society as a foundation for wide ranging theories on the evolution of animal behavior and societies.
E. O. Wilson was born on the 10th of June in 1929 in the city of Birmingham in Alabama. Wilson’s parents divorced when he was just eight years old and because his father moved frequently looking for work Wilson had few friends and spent much of his time outdoors observing the natural world around him. So began the habits of a lifetime of zoological research. A fishing accident at age seven left him partially blind in one eye but his one good eye was all he needed to discover at age 13 the first nest of invasive fire ants, Solenopsis invicta found in the United States near Mobile, Alabama. Wilson’s observational skills were so well regarded that several years later, while still a graduate student at the University of Alabama Wilson was hired by the State Conservation Department to monitor the spread of his fire ants, which were already becoming a serious pest. After receiving his Masters degree from the University of Alabama Wilson was admitted to Harvard University as a doctoral candidate.
As a naturalist Wilson is credited with the discovery that ants communicate by means of chemical scents called pheromones. At the same time he was a pioneer in the field of ecology, coining the term biodiversity. Wilson was also the author of more than two dozen books on popular science, winning two Pulitzer prizes.
One experiment that Wilson carried out has become a bedrock of ecology. Wilson postulated that the number of species living on a island depended solely on the size of the island and would remain constant even though the variety of the species could change with time. In 1968 he and his fellow naturalist Daniel Simberloff made a detailed examination of six small islands, several only a few meters across, in Florida Bay counting all of the insect species on each island. They then exterminated all of the insects by fumigation. Checking back eight months later Wilson and Simberloff found that all of the islands had been repopulated, often with different species, but critically the same number of species of insects as before. This concept has since been applied to many different environments from lakes to mountain peaks to prairies to rivers. The very idea of habitat loss due to human activity leading to species extinction is derived from Wilson’s theory.
Over his long career Wilson was often referred to as the 20th century’s Charles Darwin and like his predecessor Wilson became deeply involved in several controversies. Wilson was a young professor at Harvard when Watson and Crick discovered the shape of the DNA molecule. Buoyed by his success James Watson began pushing for nothing less than the replacement of zoology with biochemistry and genetics as the main thrust of biology. Naturalists like E.O. Wilson were nothing more than stamp collectors Watson declared, the future of biology lay in unlocking the secrets of DNA. Of course zoology hasn’t gone away, and Wilson’s work in ecology and biodiversity are a big part of zoological studies today.
The second controversy that Wilson was a part of dealt with his theories of sociobiology, his ideas about the effect of evolution on the social behavior of animals, including human beings. Many people saw Wilson’s ideas as a justification for racism, sexism and just social violence and hatred in general. Things got so bad that when Wilson was scheduled to speak at the meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1978 one of his detractors went so far as to pour a pitcher of water over him. Wilson dried himself off and went on with his planned speech. This argument over nature versus nurture is of course one of the oldest in biology but it’s still surprising how some people forget that studying ‘bad things’, trying to understand how they got inside all of us, doesn’t mean that you approve of or condone them.
Edward O. Wilson was a giant in the field of biology and evolutionary theory, his insights helped bring order and understanding to the complex web of life here on this planet. If we humans do somehow manage to save the Earth from our own greed and ignorance much of the credit will go to work of E. O. Wilson.