Astronomer Predicts a Nova Eruption for first Time

Scientists make predictions, that’s how we know that our models are correct. If we can forecast that something will happen before it happens we must have a good idea of just what’s causing it to happen.

In my blog back on January the first I mention the total solar eclipse that’s going to happen on the 17th of August of this year and scientists have been predicting eclipses now since the time of the Roman emperor Claudius.

A few predictions have been some of the greatest moments in the history of science, such as when Edmund Halley predicted that a comet would return or when Paul Dirac predicted the existence of Anti-matter. Just a few years ago the discovery of the Higgs boson confirmed a prediction made by Peter Higgs back in the 1960s.

Now Astronomer Lawrence Molnar of Calvin College in Grand Rapids Michigan is making the first ever prediction of the eruption of a Nova, the explosion of a particular star system. The star system in question is called KIC 9832227, a 12th magnitude system in the constellation in the of Cygnus. The system consists of three stars, two of which form a contact binary, that is two stars that are so close to each other that they are “kissing”. See picture below.

Star Merger Geometry. L. Molnar, Calvin College

Professor Molnar and his team have been studying KIC9832227 for many years now and have noted an acceleration in the orbit period of the two stars, an acceleration which is increasing exponentially. Based on these observations Professor Molnar predicts that in 2022, give or take a year the stars will merge into one and that the resulting explosion will make the 12th magnitude system temporarily visible to the naked eye, a new star or Nova will appear briefly in our night sky.

While not as spectacular as a Supernova, where a star 10 or more times as massive as our Sun explodes in a fireball as bright as an entire Galaxy this is the first time anyone has been bold enough to predict a date on when a nova will occur. I hope that five years from now I get to see KIC 9832227 as it goes Nova. If it does Professor Molnar will have joined the ranks of Halley and Dirac and many others whose predictions have done so much to advance human knowledge. You can read an article on Professor Molnar’s work at Sky and Telescope Magazine by clicking on the link below.

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/uncategorized/stars-en-route-to-merger/

Before I go I want to also mention a new, and I think very beautiful picture of our Earth with the Moon that has been taken from orbit around Mars by NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Earth and Moon as seen from Mars- NASA Picture

If you’d like a better picture check out the article at Space.com by clicking below.

http://www.space.com/35252-earth-and-moon-from-mars-photo.html

P.S. I finally got around to making a unique header image for Science and Science Fiction. I hope you like it!

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      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment, even though I had to translate from polish. But this isn’t a law yet, it’s a prediction based upon study of previous supernova events. If the prediction turns out to be accurate that will mean that we have taken a big step in understanding the laws governing supernovas!
      Bob L

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      Bob L

  73. My developer is trying to convince me to move to .net from
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      Bob L

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      Bob L

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      Bob L

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      Bob L

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      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. I will admit that writing two posts each week is a fair amount of work but you just have to do it and don’t let anything or anyone stop you.
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment but I have to tell you that I do not allow links to other sites in my comments. Nothing personal but you never know where a link may go. Even if you stop to check the owner of that other site could change it, or link to a third site. Really, if you are considering starting your own site take my advice and keep strict control of any links!!!! Good luck on your site!
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      Bob L

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      Bob L

    1. Now I’ve mentioned it a few times now but I don’t approve links to other websites since I have no way of controlling their content. Thanks for the comment but I hope you understand why I removed your link!
      Bob L

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      Bob L

    1. Well thanks for the compliment. When I started my blog I just went to Ipage and paid for wordpress. The current version of wordpress I’m using is 4.9.1 and I just chose a simple theme and layout, nothing fancy ’cause I didn’t want anything to get in the way of the posts. I like the old idea of KISS “Keep It Simple Stupid!” Anyway I hope that gives you some ideas and good luck on your site!
      Bob L

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      Bob L

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      Bob L

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      Bob L

    1. If you though that was a must read article I hope you’ll come back soon to read some of the others. Anyway thanks for the comment.
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    1. Thanks for the comment but I’ll say it again, I do not allow links to other websites in my comments section. I’m sorry but I have no control over those sites and people have already tried to slip some really offensive things past me. No offensive it’s just what I consider the best policy for Science and Science Fiction. I hope you understand and that you’ll feel free to comment again soon but please, no links!!
      Bob L

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      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. As to setting up your own blog I wondered like you whether to go with a free platform or pay for one. One thing to bear in mind is that a free platform will only be available to your readers WHEN YOUR COMPUTER IS ON! That’s right, turn off your computer and nobody can read your blog! I think you can lose a lot of traffic that way.
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      Bob L

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      Bob L

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      Bob L

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      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment but as I’ve stated on several occasions I cannot approve links to other websites in my comments section. I’m sorry but I have had some people try to sneak some really disgusting things through so I’ve decided to just eliminate all links to places I don’t control. I simply can’t take the risk. Again I’m sorry but I feel I have no other choice.
      Bob L

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      Bob L

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    1. Search Engine optimization is a hard thing for those of us trying to build our audience from scratch. All I can really advise is keep working. Little by little you’ll see some progress. Don’t use too many keywords as Google and other search engines will actually penalize you for that. Really just pick three or four of the best keywords you can think of. Also keep adding new content. I post twice a week so in a sense I get eight keywords out there every week. Just keep plugging!
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment but I wrote that post over a year ago, 11Jan17. Never mind I’m glad you liked it and I hope you’ll be coming back for more!
      Bob L

  117. My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net
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      Bob L

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    1. You question isn’t off topic at all. Is keeping up a blog a lot of work, well it certainly can be. I post twice a week with each post at between 600-900 words so that takes me about two afternoons just writing. Then there’s the research and finding applicable images to add to the writing, which takes a bit of time. However since I like keeping up on scientific advances that’s something I’d be doing anyway. Actually publishing the post onto my blogsite only takes 10-15 minutes so that’s no big deal. So really for me it comes down to about two afternoons a week worth of work. Now as far as tips are concerned, my blog is hosted by ipage and I purchased wordpress through them. It was pretty easy getting setup and isn’t too expensive, and it was nice having someone to answer my questions when I had them. Anyway I hope that helps and good luck with your blog!
      Bob L

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      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. If you’re interested in the subject I’d suggest just goggling Supernova, You’d get thousands of results so be careful and try to read some articles from reliable institutions, like Physics departments at Universities. On the other hand Wikipedia’s article on the subject would be a good place to start. Hope that helps!
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    1. Thanks for the comment. As to the source, well he’s confident but the only way to be sure is if the prediction comes to pass. That’s what makes science different from prophecy. Scientists make predictions and if they DON”T come about we know the model is wrong. The end of the world loonies out there just pick a new date and keep selling the same nonsense.
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. I prefer to think my the subjects for my posts myself but maybe you should think about starting your own blog!
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. I try to post new articles twice a week so I hope you’ll come back often!
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. My motivation is the appreciation I get from people like you! Thanks again.
      Bob L

  208. A well written post, I simply passed this to a workfellow who was doing somewhat analysis on this.
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    1. Well I hope you enjoyed the dinner. Het, wait a minute. I wrote the post, don’t I get some dinner? Thanks for the comment.
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. Since you’re a frequent visitor next time why don’t you bring a friend?
      Bob L

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    1. Well thank your girl for me. I try my best to make science understandable to people and I’m glad you enjoyed my blog!
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. I have a lot of other articles as well. Why don’t you check them out?
      Bob L

    1. You don’t have to be so formal. Come on in, sit down relax and enjoy yourself. Thanks for the comment.
      Bob L

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    1. Thank you for your comment. I hope you’ll check out a few more of my articles. I think you’ll enjoy them as well.
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. It’s always an inspiration to hear from people who appreciate what you’re doing. Thanks again.
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. I happy to be of any help but remember if you quote me the rules of referencing. You don’t want to be accused of plagiarism!
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. I’m glad to have been of help and I hope you’ll find other things of interest in my other posts!
      Bob L

  212. Hi! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for my
    comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one?

    Thanks a lot!

    1. Thanks for the comment. My blog is hosted by Ipage.com and they provided the captcha plugin for me. I don’t think wordpress automatically has one so you should probably contact your host. Hope that helps!
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. I do try to make sure to add 4 or 5 pictures to every post. I have also added an occasional animation of sound effect or even a short video. The problem is if the clip is too long, too much data, the whole thing can hiccup and it’s a real pain to fix. Thanks for your interest.
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. I have plenty of other posts as well so come back real soon and check them out!
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. I have plenty of other content as well so I hope you’ll check it out!
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. I have plenty of other articles as well so I hope you’ll check them out!
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. I hope you noticed that I have lots of other interesting posts as well!
      Bob L

  221. Excellent article, I just passed this to a coworker who had been doing a little research on that.
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    1. Thanks for the comment. Since you’ve bookmarked my site I ought to let you know I try to post twice a week so come back soon!
      Bob L

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    1. Thanks for the comment. Maybe you should start your own blog!! In any case you’ll always be welcome to come back to see mine!
      Bob L

  225. Its like you read my mind! You seem to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something.
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    1. Thanks for the comment. I haven’t written the book about supernovas, yet, but I certainly have read more than a few!
      Bob L

  226. Hiya! Quick question that’s completely off topic.
    Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly?

    My site looks weird when browsing from my iphone4.

    I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to
    correct this problem. If you have any recommendations,
    please share. With thanks!

    1. Thanks for the comment. I know trying to make you site look good no matter what device your readers are using isn’t easy. I’m no expert on all of the different plug-ins and etc. I just follow the KISS rule, keep it simply stupid! Hope that helps!
      Bob L

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      Bob L

  228. I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of your blog.
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    1. Thanks for the comment. I hope that you’ll come back and check out some of the other posts. They’re equally interesting!
      Bob L

  229. Sweet blog! I found it while browsing on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
    I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there!
    Appreciate it

    1. Thanks for the comment. To be honest I didn’t even know I was listed in Yahoo News! As far as tips go, all I can say is hard work and patience. Good Luck and I hope we both get there!!!
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. I checked out your restaurant and it looks like my kind of place. Maybe one day when I’m in NC I’ll stop by!
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. I checked out your restaurant and it looks like my kind of place. I’ll try to keep it in mind next time I’m in N.C.
      Bob L

  230. When I initially commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three emails with the same comment.
    Is there any way you can remove me from that service?

    Appreciate it!

  231. Hi excellent blog! Does running a blog similar to this take a great deal of work?
    I’ve virtually no understanding of computer programming but I was
    hoping to start my own blog in the near future. Anyways, should you have any recommendations or tips for new blog
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    but I just needed to ask. Appreciate it!

  232. Hi there would you mind letting me know which web host you’re using?
    I’ve loaded your blog in 3 different web browsers
    and I must say this blog loads a lot faster then most. Can you recommend a good hosting provider at a reasonable price?
    Thanks, I appreciate it!

    1. Thanks for the comment. My wen host is ipage and the program I run is wordpress. I hope that helps but one thing I always keep in mind to make everything run smoothly is the KISS rule, Keep It Simple Stupid!
      Bob L

  233. Howdy would you mind letting me know which
    webhost you’re working with? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 different internet browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot quicker then most.
    Can you recommend a good web hosting provider at a fair price?
    Many thanks, I appreciate it!

    1. Thanks for the comment. As far as wen hosts go I use ipage and they provided me, for a price, with wordpress. Hope that helps!
      Bob L

    1. Thanks for the comment. Your restaurant looks really nice. Maybe sometime when I’m in N.C. I’ll be able to stop by!!!
      Bob L

  234. It’s the best time to make some plans for the future and it’s time to be happy.
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  235. It is perfect time to make some plans for
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  236. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a friend who has been doing a little research on this.
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  237. Hi! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog.
    Is it hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast.
    I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m not sure where to start.
    Do you have any points or suggestions? With thanks

    1. Thanks for the comment. I started my blog by going to ipage as my host, they supplied me with wordpress as a platform and the whole thing took a couple of days before my blog was up and running although I’m still learning new things on occasion! Hope that helps and good luck!
      Bob L

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