Before I start. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I don’t care whether you call it Global Warming or Climate Change I just want something done about it!
Over the last week there have been two very similar stories from nearly opposite ends of the Earth. The first story concerned a series of very heavy storms that produced a record setting amount of rain in the city of Zhengzhou in central China. At its peak on July 22, the rain fell at a rate of over 20cm per hour and theoretically the total amount that fell on Zhengzhou and the surrounding region was equivalent to a one-in-a-thousand-years rain event for the city and region. That statistical estimate was before global warming of course.
The flooding caused extensive damage throughout the city but the worst incidences occurred in the city’s subway and highway tunnels. The torrent of water falling onto paved roads and concrete sidewalks flowed into the underground passages filling them up like a bathtub. Thousands of commuters who were inside the city’s subway became trapped, some of them forced to stand in chest deep water for hours while at least 13 people drowned. In another part of Zhengzhou a new highway tunnel was flooded with more than 200 cars trapped inside. Four people are known to have died in the highway tunnel but the toll there could have been much worse if not for the bravery of a retired member of the Chinese army’s elite commandos named Yang Junkui. Mister Yang became a hero by swimming from car to car rescuing the trapped occupants.
Both of the underground systems in Zhengzhou were constructed with a pumping system installed that was designed to handle the amount of rainfall expected in a once in 50-year storm. The rain that fell on the city that day simply overwhelmed those pumps however. Even after the storms had passed additional pumping equipment had to be brought in to help clean up both tunnel networks.
Only two days after the deluge that crippled Zhengzhou another extreme weather system dropped 6-9 cm of rain per hour on the city of London in the UK causing flash floods and significant damage throughout the city. Once again the worst flooding occurred in the famed ‘London Underground’ subway system where several stations were forced to close.
Fortunately the heavy flooding that struck London, although destructive did not cause any loss of life. As I was reading these stories it occurred to me that a large part of our transportation infrastructure, like the London Underground, was constructed a long time before climate change became an issue. And even those systems that have been built more recently, like the Zhenghou highway tunnel, are not being built to deal with the extreme weather that is predicted to happen over the next few decades.
Cities bring these problems on themselves by paving over large areas of ground so that the rainwater cannot sink in. Instead the runoff overwhelms the drainage systems and accumulates in low-lying locations like subway or highway tunnels. My own hometown of Philadelphia is a prime example of these potential problems with the center of the city crisscrossed by the Market and Broad Street subways. Both of these systems are over one hundred years old and have many times in the past dealt with flooding issues. The likelihood of a catastrophic flooding event occurring sometime in the near future has to be taken seriously.
What if, thanks to global warming, one in a thousand year weather events start happening every fifty years or every thirty years? Can our subway systems and underground highway tunnels cope with the enormous rainfall totals to come or will disasters like Zhengzhou just become another ‘new normal’ like the wildfires breaking out now in Spain, Greece and Sardinia.
Between the wildfires, the floods, the sea level rise and droughts it sounds like the new normal is going to be one big long disaster.
There have been a couple of major paleontological discoveries recently that deal, not with fossils themselves but rather with locations where a large number of diverse kinds of fossils have been found. Locations where not just a single creature but an entire ecology can be studied.
One such site has been found in a deserted quarry in the Cotswolds region of Great Britain and which is now being excavated by paleontologists from the Museum of Natural History in London. The rocks at the site date to the Jurassic period some 167.1 million years ago. The exact location of the Cotswold fossil site has been kept secret so as to allow a team from the museum led by Dr. Tim Ewin to collect as many of the fossils as possible. Best of all the site was actually first located by a pair of amateur fossil hunters Neville and Sally Hollingworth who were invited to help the professionals with their work..
Judging by the type and condition of the fossils the quarry was once the floor of an ancient river delta, teeming with life that was suddenly buried in mud by some catastrophic event. The animals that lived there were buried quickly while still alive so the exquisitely preserved fossils represent a ‘snap-shot’ of life on the sea bed at a single moment of time. The enormous number of well preserved fossils will allow paleontologists to not only study the individual animals collected but the relationships between them as well, helping them to understand the ecology of the site 167.1 million years ago.
Most of the fossils found at the quarry come from a group of sea invertebrates called echinoderms, which includes starfish, sea urchins, sea cucumbers and sea lilies, also known as crinoids. Literally thousands of specimens have been collected, many still incased in rock but some of which have been weathered out of the rock leaving only a beautiful specimen to be studied. Unfortunately not many vertebrate fossils were found, a few skeletons of small fish and some crocodile teeth.
According to Dr. Ewin, “What we’re finding at this site are the most beautifully preserved fossil sea urchins, starfish, sea lilies and feathered stars that I have ever seen from Britain. It’s comparable to some of the best sea urchin and starfish sites in the world.”
So large are the number of specimens that just cleaning and preparing them could take years while identifying and cataloging the many different species, some of which could be entirely new, may take even longer. Paleontologists are patient scientists however, after all their specimens have been waiting 161 million years to be studied.
The Cotswold site represents a large part of a single ecological niche at a single moment in time. Most fossil locations are like that, one type of environment over a short period of time, bearing in mind that geologically thousands of years is a short period of time. Normally in order to see how living creatures change, how they evolve it is necessary to compare the specimens from a number of different sites.
Some fossil sites however are so large that they expose layers of rock that were laid down over a longer period of time, millions of years in some cases. The Grand Canyon in the United States is an example of this where the erosion caused by the Colorado River has exposed hundreds of layers of rock spread over millions of years.
Now a “new” fossil location has been described that puts the Grand Canyon to shame. I say “new” because portions of the site have been studied before but the full extent of the site as one long exposure of rock is only now being described. The location is up in the Canadian Yukon Province along the Peel River just a few hundred kilometers south of the Arctic’s Beaufort Sea. Erosion by the river has exposed a continuous record of rocks dating from the Late Cambrian period to the late Devonian, a spread of about 120 million years, all along the same river.
Now not all of the rocks along the Peel River contain large numbers of fossils, some were either laid down in the deep ocean where few animals live or perhaps extremely salty conditions like the Dead Sea. Nevertheless there are a huge number of different points along the Peel River where fossils can be found, more than enough to keep paleontologists busy for decades.
One discovery that has already been published based on samples from the Peel deals not with the kinds on living creatures there were back in the Paleozoic but rather the level of free oxygen in the atmosphere during that period. Scientists have known for decades that for most of Earth’s history there was little free oxygen in the air. Oxygen is a very reactive chemical, that’s why we use it to respirate. It’s only because of photosynthesis in plants continuously replenishing it that our atmosphere has so much oxygen in it. Something happened between 400-500 million years ago to greatly increase the oxygen levels.
Paleontologists have speculated that it was the evolution of land plants that spurred this increase. Plants on land meant more plants leading to more oxygen leading to more living things in general setting up a feedback mechanism that more than doubled the percentage of oxygen in the atmosphere. The problem with this theory was the timing, did the increase in oxygen occur at the same time as the fossil evidence for land plants.
In a paper in the journal Science Advances by lead author Erik A. Sperling of Stanford University’s Department of Geological Sciences chemical samples from along the Peel River have been used to determine that oxygen levels remained low for a long period of the Paleozoic and did not reach more modern levels until the early Devonian, about 405 million years ago. This late increase in oxygen casts some doubt on the land plant hypothesis but other scientists still have to study the data and comment.
Having collected at more than seventy fossil sites I can tell you that they are special places. Knowing that you are in the presence of the remains of ancient life, that any rock you pick up could be a discovery waiting for someone to find it is a feeling unlike any other.
Born in New York City in 1933, Steven Weinberg became interested in science thanks to the childhood gift of a chemistry set. In 1950 he became the first member of his family to attend college receiving a bachelor’s degree in physics from Cornell University and then his Doctorate from Princeton.
Doctor Weinberg then began his career as a researcher at Columbia University before accepting temporary teaching assignments at the University of California in Berkeley, Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He finally settled down in 1982 at the University of Texas in Austin where he would remain for the rest of his life teaching both physics and astronomy.
The key moment in Doctor Weinberg’s career came in 1967 when he published a short, three page paper in the journal ‘Physical Review Letters’ entitled ‘A Model of Leptons’. In that paper Weinberg theorized that the weak nuclear interaction, best known for beta decay where a neutron transforms into a proton plus an electron and an anti-neutrino, could best be understood if it were unified with the familiar Electromagnetic interaction. In particular Weinberg predicted the existence of both charged and neutral current paths thru which his unified force would propagate.
Weinberg’s ideas would soon be extended by his colleagues Abdus Salam and Sheldon Lee Glashow to become the Electro-Weak force that was carried by four boson particles, the W particle, which comes in both positive and negative charged varieties along with the neutral Z particle and the photon. At that time only the familiar photon had been detected in the labouratory but experiments in the 1970s would discover the other three making Weinberg one of the only scientists who could say that he predicted the existence of three particles before they were discovered in the lab.
By combining two of the four known forces of nature, which are gravity, electromagnetism, and the strong and weak nuclear forces Weinberg had partially succeeded in something that Albert Einstein unsuccessfully worked on for the last 25 years of his life. Einstein had sought to unify gravity and electromagnetism into a single geometric theory but unlike his earlier success with general relativity a unified field theory eluded him.
The success of the Weinberg-Salam-Glashow theory led to its three contributors being awarded the 1979 Nobel Prize in physics and set the stage for a whole plethora of ‘Grand Unified Theories’ or GUTs throughout the 1980s and 90s. The final theory that came about from these efforts was ‘Supersymmetry’ that is based on the simple idea that there is really only one kind of particle and that all of the different particles we see in our labouratories are actually just different quantum states of that one kind of particle. The major prediction of supersymmetry was that every known particle would have to be coupled to a supersymmetric ‘partner’ that balanced all of the known particle’s measured quantities.
Throughout the last thirty years Weinberg was a contributor and proponent of supersymmetry. (By the way supersymmetry is not quite the same as string theory, the idea that elementary particles are little strings that vibrate. String theory fits very well with supersymmetry however and today it’s hard to find a physicist who is working in supersymmetry that doesn’t use string theory.) Unlike electro-weak theory however none of the partner particles predicted by supersymmetry have been discovered so that today most theorists are searching new paths to try to explain the standard model of particles that we know.
In addition to his own work in particle physics Steven Weinberg was also the author of several books popularizing science including ‘Dreams of a final Theory’ about particle physics and ‘The First Three Minutes, a Modern View of the Origin of the Universe’, which describes in clear language the big bang. Doctor Weinberg was also a longtime advocate for nuclear disarmament. Steven Weinberg belonged to the post-war generation of physicists that included such brilliant minds as Richard Feynman, Murray Gell-Mann and Robert Higgs, to name a few. For these scientists Relativity and Quantum Mechanics were well established models to build upon and together they helped to develop the standard model that is today the basis of our understanding of the Universe.
Ever since physicists began experimenting with the nuclei of atoms they realized that producing energy by the fusion of light nuclei had several advantages over the splitting, fission of heavy nuclei. For one thing fusion simply produces more energy than fission but more importantly fusion does not produce the large amounts of radioactive waste that are the biggest problem with our current nuclear power plants.
The big problem with using nuclear fusion to generate power is that it’s so hard to initiate. Whereas a nucleus of Uranium 235 is so unstable that almost any disturbance, like a stray neutron striking it, will cause it to split into smaller nuclei a hydrogen nuclei, really just a proton, will electrostatically repel any other proton making it very difficult to force them to fuse together. This is because the strong nuclear force keeping nuclei together is incredibly short ranged; you practically have to get the protons to touch in order for them to stick. The electromagnetic (EM) force on the other hand obeys an inverse square law like gravity does and never really goes to zero.
In the center of the Sun fusion is only possible because of the extreme pressures and temperatures there. So in order to generate fusion in the labouratory scientists and engineers have for over 60 years tried to replicate the conditions at the center of the Sun.
The usual design for these attempts has been a doughnut shaped vacuum chamber inside a very powerful magnetic field known as a Tokamak. Inside the Tokamak an ionized gas known as a plasma is heated to millions of degrees Celsius and contained by the magnetic field. Once the fuel reaches a high enough temperature some of the nuclei begin to fuse releasing energy that can then be converted into electric power. The ITER fusion reactor, which is currently under construction in France, is expected to operate at a plasma temperature of 150 million degrees Celsius!
The fuel used in most fusion experiments are heavy isotopes of hydrogen, also known as deuterium and tritium, D-T, which consist of a single proton attached to either a single neutron or two neutrons respectively. The reason that heavy hydrogen is the fuel of choice is that with only a single proton in each nuclei the repelling force is minimized, the greater the number of protons the greater the repelling EM force and the higher temperature needed to force fusion to occur.
D-T has one big drawback however, about 80% of the energy released is by the emission of free neutrons. These neutrons are not only dangerous to living tissue, and therefore require a large amount of shielding around a fusion reactor, but it is also difficult to covert the kinetic energy of neutral particles into useful electric power. High energy charged particles however can be directly converted in electric power by several techniques, moving electric charges is the definition of electric current after all.
For this reason there has been a lot of interest recently in several other fusion reactions that are considered to be ‘aneutronic’ with only a very small amount of the energy generated being released by neutrons, the majority coming from charged particles. Three aneutronic reactions in particular are being studied:
Helium Three, that’s two protons with a neutron, with Deuterium
He3+D→He4+p +18.3 MeV of Energy
Lithium 7, three protons and four neutrons, with a proton
Li7+p→2He4 + 17.2 MeV
Boron 11, five protons and six neutrons, with a proton
B11+p→3He4 + 8.7 MeV
The first reaction, Helium 3 and Deuterium requires the lowest temperature of any of the aneutronic reactions and releases the most energy of any of the three reactions. The problem is that Helium 3 is virtually non-existent here on Earth. Traces of Helium 3 have been found in samples of rocks brought back from the Moon and which space scientists theorize was produced by billions of years of the solar wind striking the Lunar surface.
Science fiction writer have picked up on this availability ofthis potential energy source on the Moon and several novels have been written using Helium 3 mining as a reason for establishing a Lunar colony. However obtaining even a few useful kilograms of Helium would require processing millions of kilos of Lunar regolith, a endeavour well beyond our current space technology. Maybe one day a large Lunar colony will supply Earth with fuel for its fusion reactors, but that’s many decades in the future.
That leaves Lithium and Boron as possible fuels for an aneutronic fusion reactor and while neither element is especially abundant there is still more than enough to keep thousands of fusion reactors running for centuries. As shown in the reactions above Lithium fusion releases the greater amount of energy but is generally not considered aneutronic because as much as 10% of the energy is released as neutrons by the secondary reaction:
Li7+p→Be7+n
Boron on the other hand releases less than 1% of its energy by neutrons but also releases less than half the energy of the other two. Both lithium and Boron would require a plasma temperature of more than 600 million degrees Celsius in order to produce a sustained fusion reaction.
So there you have it. Aneutronic fusion may provide some definite advantages over heavy hydrogen fusion but because of the much higher temperatures required it’s difficult to see how they can be implemented any time in the near future. Without some unexpected technical breakthrough it seems inevitable that the first nuclear fusion reactors will be based on heavy hydrogen as a fuel.
Which is why it’s a sign of progress that the most powerful magnet ever built has been shipped from its manufacturer General Atomics in the United States to southern France. The magnet is the first of six sections of what will become the central core of the ITER reactor. At a 18m in height and 4m in width with a mass of 100 metric tonnes the section cannot be transported by road and is being shipped by a specially prepared ship to the ITER site. Once all six sections are assembled the magnet will produce a field of 13 Tesla or about 280,000 times the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field. It is hoped that the first section will be installed by November.
“Shipstar” is the second in a series of three novels by noted science fiction authors Gregory Benford and Larry Niven. I reviewed the first novel in the series “The Bowl of Heaven” back on the 2nd of January 2021. As we began “The Bowl of Heaven” the Earth starship Sunseeker was on a mission to establish the first human colony in another star system on a planet that is given the name Glory.
In mid flight however Sunseeker encounters an unbelievable sight, a star that has been almost completely enclosed inside a shell. Such an object is commonly known as a Dyson sphere after physicist Freeman Dyson who proposed that such a structure would allow a high-technology civilization to capture and use the entire energy output of the enclosed star.
Now the star encountered by Sunseeker is not a complete Dyson sphere, there is a large hole in the sphere making the object more like a bowl, “The Bowl of Heaven” in the title. And the star’s solar wind has been magnetically channeled through that hole to provide a rocket exhaust making the star and it’s bowl into a ship, a “Shipstar”.
Investigating this marvel the Sunseeker sails inside the bowl and sends down a landing party to the inside surface of the bowl. On the surface the humans discover a large number of different intelligences, each of which appear to inhabit their own area on the inside of the bowl. The aliens who run the bowl, and who refer to themselves as ‘The Folk’ turn out to be rather domineering and capture half the landing party while the other half escapes into the bowl. After a series of adventures this is where “The Bowl of Heaven” ends.
“Shipstar” picks up where “The Bowl of Heaven” left off with half the landing party being interrogated by the folk while the rest are trying not to get caught. The first three-quarters of “Shipstar” consist of these adventures as the Earthlings learn more about the creatures that inhabit the bowl. Before long it becomes obvious that while the folk may appear to be in charge they clearly aren’t the original builders of the bowl. Several times in the novel one human character or another thinks to themselves “we’re missing something here” as the authors try to build up tension for the big reveal to come.
So the first three hundred pages of ‘Shipstar” are pretty much action-adventure, the escaped humans actually get involved in a rebellion by one of the other intelligent species on the bowl against the folk. The adventures and the aliens encountered are all interesting enough but really they’re just filler.
And that’s my problem with all of these SF series lately. The author or authors may start out with a good enough idea but because they have to spread it over three or more books the story becomes mostly filler, more like a western than real SF. Conflict is important in any story, you learn that your first day in any writing course, every story needs its protagonist(s) and antagonist(s). Science Fiction however is about big ideas not just a series of shootouts and fistfights.
Now as I said, with two top-notch SF writers like Benford and Niven the filler is worth reading and in the last hundred pages of “Shipstar” we do finally get some information, some resolution as well as a setup for the next book in the series. The story of the voyages of the Sunseeker and the Bowl of Heaven continues in “Glorious” and I’ll be certain to tell you all about it before too long.
I’ve just watched Jeff Bezos and his New Shepard spacecraft complete their eleven minute trip to the edge of space and I have to admit I’m underwhelmed. The fact that a private citizen can now accomplish what NASA succeeded in doing back in 1961 with Mercury-Redstone does not seem like much progress to me even though the news media insist on calling the flight ‘historic’.
The date of Blue Origin’s first manned flight on the 20th of July was deliberate to honour the 52nd anniversary of Neil Armstrong’s becoming the first man to set foot on the Moon. And Bezos also chose his crew with an eye to making headlines by including female aviation pioneer Wally Funk, who trained as an astronaut back in the early 1960s only to have NASA completely ignore her. At 82 years of age Wally also became the oldest person to travel into space while fellow passenger Oliver Daemen became the youngest at 18. All of which is good advertising for a company looking to establish its market share in a new industry.
It is true that unlike Alan Shepard’s flight the world’s richest man was able to take three other people with him and while Shepard could barely move around in his Mercury capsule the New Shepard capsule has enough room for everyone to enjoy zero g for a few minutes. Nevertheless New Shepard is really nothing more than a thrill ride, the world’s biggest, and by far most expensive roller coaster ride.
Bezos’ company Blue Origin expects two more flight’s of New Shepard this year and as many as half a dozen next year. If enough people are willing to pay the yet to be officially announced ticket price then Blue Origin could build more spacecraft to accommodate more flights and maybe before to long several hundred people a year could be getting their astronauts wings.
The same is pretty much true of Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic flight to the edge of space nine days earlier on July 11th. Branson’s SpaceShip 2 is actually based upon the US Air Force’s X-15 program, again a program from the early 1960s. The X-15 proper was a rocket plane that was attached beneath an Air Force bomber and lifted about 20 kilometers into the atmosphere. There the X-15 was dropped from the mother plane so that it could light its engine and fly to the edge of space before returning as a glider, just like the later space shuttle.
Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShip 2 and its mothership follow basically the same flight path, the mothership carries SpaceShip 2 aloft and then drops it so that it can ignite its engines and fly off to the edge of space. The only real difference is that unlike the X-15, which carried only its pilot, SpaceShip 2 can carry up to six people, five paying passengers plus the pilot and once again contains enough room for those passengers to enjoy zero g for a few minutes.
So if both flights just mimicked missions from the early 60s why did the news media make such a hullabaloo about them? Worst of all was the argument over whether or not Branson had actually gone into space. You see the US government insists on using imperial measurements and therefore defines space as an altitude of 50 miles. (I wonder if that’s the first time I’ve mentioned miles in these posts.) The rest of the world uses SI units and defines space as 100 kilometers, equivalent to 62 miles. Bezos and New Shepard crossed both boundaries but Branson and SpaceShip 2 only reached the lower altitude so they will have an asterix next to their status as astronauts. As if it really matters.
I suppose by now you thinking that I’m a real party pooper. Why can’t I just be excited that more people are going to get the chance to travel into space? After all, that will help build up more enthusiasm for space travel while developing new technologies that could be useful on more scientific and exploratory missions. And remember that both New Glenn and SpaceShip 2 are completely reusable, won’t that help to develop new, reusable technology for space travel in general.
Maybe, but it is worth mentioning that another billionaire, Elon Musk and his Space X corporation have already succeeded in launching ten astronauts, real astronauts that is, into orbit along with numerous unmanned payloads with his reusable Falcon 9 rocket. And Musk at least has had the good sense, or perhaps good manners would be a better description, not to send himself into space in one of his crew dragon capsules. Seriously the fact that Space X is winning contracts to place useful payloads into orbit or beyond does kind of make the short, sub-orbital flights of Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin seem like nothing more than joyrides.
Looking into the future it is true that Blue Origin is developing a larger version of their rocket that will be both reusable and capable of placing payloads into orbit. This would make the company a direct competitor of Space X, which could help to further lower costs and therefore increase space travel in general.
To the best of my knowledge however Virgin Galactic has no plans to develop any orbital version of their space plane. The company appears to be content to carve out a business taking rich people just high enough above the Earth’s surface so they can tell their friends that they’re now astronauts.
In recent years the commercialization of space has begun to pay off some real dividends. Astronauts are being taken to the International Space Station in larger numbers and at far less cost than either Russia’s Soyuz or the old Shuttle could do while the cost of unmanned space missions have also gone down. So I suppose the carnival surrounding the first launches of New Shepard and SpaceShip2 are a small price to pay for the progress that is being made.
At birth we humans are perhaps the most helpless of creatures. Unable to move let alone find food or take care of ourselves in any way we are utterly dependent on other humans for our survival. For that reason the very first thing our brains are designed to do is recognize another person, especially another human face.
This instinct is true of virtually all mammals and birds, even some reptiles. Since the first thing we see after birth is usually our mother we imprint on her. And since humans have always lived in groups we quickly imprint on the other members of the group, our father, siblings, and other relatives.
It also very important that we be able to recognize the mood other people are in. Crying for food when your mother is angry, or perhaps frightened because a predator is near is more likely to get you a slap than a meal. The shape of a smile, or a frown, and what they mean also appears to be built into our brains even before we are born. And as we grow older we become attuned to the more subtle facial expressions the different members of our group have, this ability aids in our communications with those around us.
So important is our ability to detect and analyze another human face that we are unconsciously looking for human faces all the time, and all to often finding them in objects that are completely non-human. We’re all familiar with this psychological phenomenon; we’ve all at one time or another seen a human face in almost anything that vaguely resembles two eyes, a nose and mouth. Artists sometimes even toy with our mind by generating face like shapes out of things that are completely non-human.
Psychologically this phenomenon is called pareidolia and studies have shown that our minds will even attribute emotions to non-living objects if we see a face in them. Perhaps even stranger is the fact that the feeling of seeing a face, and emotions in that face will persist even after we realize our mistake and recognize that the thing we are anthropomorphizing isn’t even alive.
Now a new study by neuroscientists at the University of Sydney in Australia and the National Institute of Mental Health in Bethesda in Maryland has examined both how a pareidolia face is detected and how the ‘expression’ on that face is analyzed. In the experiment a group of 17 student volunteers were shown a sequence of images of both actual human faces and illusionary faces on non-living objects. Forty images of each type were used with the human faces expressing emotions ranging from happy to neutral to angry.
The students were shown the images alternating between human and non-living with each image being shown eight times for a total of 320 trials. Although each image was shown eight times the order of the images was randomized so that a non-living image would follow different human faces. The students were asked to rate the emotion of the faces on both the human and illusionary faces as they saw them.
What the researchers found was that the emotional rating of the non-human faces was profoundly influenced by the emotion on the face of the human image immediately preceding it. This result indicates that our brain detects and then analyzes false faces in exactly the same manner as it does an actual human face rather than discarding the detection as a mistake. In addition, by controlling the time that the volunteers saw each image the researchers were able to estimate that our brains require only a few hundred milli-seconds to analyze even a pareidolia face.
According to Professor David Alais of the University of Sydney’s school of Psychology and lead author of the study, “From an evolutionary perspective, it seems that the benefit of never missing a face outweighs the errors where inanimate objects are seen as faces.”
Which goes to show that our brains are already programmed with a variety of instincts and behaviors before we are even born, instincts and behaviors that may have served our pre-human ancestors well but some of which may actually be harmful in our modern world. We need to better understand the way our brains work if we are ever going to control the prejudices and impulses acquired by our ancestors millions of years ago.
In the late 18th century, as astronomers first got some accurate distances to the various planets in the Solar System they noticed a wide gap in the space between Mars and Jupiter. Then during the first half of the 19th century a large number of smaller bodies, now called asteroids were discovered and the idea of an asteroid ‘belt’ between Mars and Jupiter where the chunks of a failed planet orbited the Sun was developed.
Basically the idea was that the gravity of nearby Jupiter, the most massive of all the planets caused so many perturbations in the orbits of the asteroids that they never succeeded in merging into a single body. Today we know of the existence of hundreds of bodies in the asteroid belt.
The sixteenth of those asteroids to be discovered was named 16 Psyche and yes the 16 refers to it being the sixteenth asteroid discovered. Psyche has recently garnered a considerable amount of attention because the latest estimate of the asteroid’s density, released in 2019, put it at a rather high value of 3.99+0.26 g.cm3. Because of its high density planetary physicists have suggested that 16 Psyche may in fact be the remains of the core of that failed planet that Jupiter prevented from coming together.
Now that density is far too high for the asteroid to be composed primarily of silicates like the Earth’s crust is. Psyche must be mainly, an estimated 95%, composed of metals like iron, nickel and cobalt, with perhaps even some gold, silver and copper mixed in. With all of those valuable minerals in a ball about 200km across, giving the asteroid a mass of 2.4×1019 kg, the potential value of 16 Psyche could be as high as $10,000 Quadrillion USD using current commodities prices. Before you go grab your pick ax and shovel and try to stake a claim however remember 16 Psyche never comes closer to Earth than 225 million kilometers so getting there, and getting you and your ore back to Earth, might make the whole enterprise a loosing proposition.
By the way, all this talk about valuable metals on 16 Psyche reminds me of a short story by the British astronomer Fred Hoyle from back in the 60’s called ‘Element 79’. Now back when the story was written the UK was still suffering from the debt it had accrued fighting the Nazis in world war two when it gets struck by a fairly large meteorite. The impact occurs in the Scottish Highlands, which helps to minimize the loss of life. And the damage done by the impact is soon forgotten because the meteor is mainly composed of element 79, that’s gold to any of you who don’t have access to a periodic table of the elements. The mass of the meteor was about 300 billion kilograms, more than all the gold in all the world’s bank vaults and quickly made the UK the world’s richest nation.
Interesting story if you can find it but getting back to 16 Psyche a recent paper by undergraduate student David Cantillo at the University of Arizona concludes that the asteroid is actually only about 85% metal, the rest carbonaceous chondrite type material. Cantillo also concludes that structurally the asteroid is not a solid object but little more than a pile of rubble held together by gravity. Still an asteroid that is 85% valuable metals would be very interesting, from a business point of view.
Which view of 16 Psyche is correct we may know in just a few years because NASA is currently building a robotic space probe to visit and survey the asteroid. The probe is being funded as a part of NASA’s Discovery Program and is scheduled to be launched aboard a Space X Falcon Heavy Rocket in July of 2022, just a year from now. After getting a gravity boost from Mars the probe will reach 16 Psyche in 2026 and will orbit and survey the asteroid for at least 20 months.
Let’s imagine just for a minute that the probe reaches 16 Psyche and discovers that the asteroid is absolutely teeming with valuable metals, even deposits of gold are observed right on the surface. And if the asteroid is just a pile of rubble as Mister Cantillo thinks that would actually make it easier to mine. Just grab a shovel and start hefting gold into your spaceship’s cargo bay. And since the gravity of an asteroid like 16 Psyche is so low you won’t have to worry much about landing and taking off on the asteroid, just get to the asteroid belt!
Think of it, commercial space ventures are just now starting to really get going, in 6-10 years they may be ready to try something beyond Low Earth Orbit (LOE), way beyond. Now of course since 16 Psyche is so far away the first miners to the asteroid will all be robots but still it just might happen that 10 years from now asteroid mining becomes a real possibility.
The small Canadian town of Lytton sits about 100 kilometers to the northeast of the city of Vancouver in British Columbia. Situated at a latitude of 50º North of the equator Lytton is hardly the place that you would expect to be competing for the honour of being one of the world’s hottest places. In fact the daily high temperature in Lytton during the hottest times of the year rarely reached above 30ºC. Or at least it did before global warming.
(Before I go any further I just want to state again that in my opinion the green house gasses we are dumping into the atmosphere are causing Earth’s average temperature to rise, that’s global warming. But that rise in temperature can cause many different localized changes to the environment, that’s climate change. Nevertheless, I don’t care about whether you call it global warming or climate change I just want something done about it!)
Over the past week however Lytton has suffered under a once rare weather phenomenon called a heat dome. Simply put a heat dome is a very strong high pressure system that gets cut off from the high altitude jet stream and therefore can remain in the same location for several days or more. Now remember that in the northern hemisphere the wind blows clockwise around a high pressure system so where I live in Philadelphia the hottest days occur when there is a Bermuda high off the Atlantic coast. The clockwise flow around the Bermuda high brings warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico over the southern states, where it warms even further, right into the Mid-Atlantic region. Bermuda highs are generated by the warming of the waters in the western Atlantic during the summer and thanks to global warming they have been getting stronger over the last decade.
On the west coast the high pressure systems that generate heat domes are caused by a difference in temperature, technically known as a gradient in the Pacific Ocean with the temperature rising as you go from west to east. In other words the ocean waters near Japan are relatively cool but get progressively warmer as you go east towards the North American west coast. Recalling that the air above warm water rises means that the northern Pacific can become a kind of wind tunnel pointing towards North America. These prevailing winds bring warm air onto land and sometimes during the winter those winds can become trapped against a jet stream pushing down from the Artic forming a massive high pressure system, which as the summer begins forms a heat dome.
These heat domes have appeared several times in the past few years over the US pacific northwest states leading to record high temperatures in cities like Portland Oregon and Seattle Washington. This year’s heat dome has been the largest and strongest ever seen reaching all the way from Portland, which set it’s all time record high of 46º on June28th, to the Canadian Yukon and Northwest Territories.
Little Lytton sat right in the middle of the high pressure system which meant that for several days there was virtually no wind or clouds in the town. Nothing but Sunlight lasting for nearly twenty hours a day. Remember Lytton is at 50º north latitude so the days there in summer are very long. After days of baking in the Sun on June 27th Lytton broke Canada’s all time high temperature record of 45ºC with a temperature of 46.7ºC. That record was only the start however for on June 28th the high temperature in Lytton reached 47.8ºC before finally on June 29th reaching an astounding 49.4ºC, hotter than it’s even been recorded in the city of Las Vegas, Nevada. That temperature is in fact the hottest ever recorded at any latitude above 45º, north or south on the entire planet!
Of course it wasn’t just Lytton that sweltered in oppressive heat, almost the entire western part of Canada and the United States have been subjected to an unprecedented heat wave in regions where it rarely gets hot, regions where air conditioning is virtually unknown. While the consequences to public health will take some time to fully determine an initial heat related death toll of 380 has been announced for Canada and at least several hundred for the US states of Washington and Oregon.
So is this the new normal, it certainly does seem as if we’ve reached a tipping point where massive changes to large areas of the globe are happening right before our eyes. And the evidence has become so overwhelming that it seems as if even the worst climate change deniers have become silent. Still there’s so much we have to do if we’re to prevent even worse climate disasters, and so little time left.
Post Script: As I was writing this post the BBC broadcast a story about a wildfire that was ravaging the Canadian province of British Columbia. Caused by the excessive heat and drought conditions generated inside the heat dome the wildfire had virtually wiped out the small town of Lytton!
In the earlier sections of the olde testament there are a number of groups of people mentioned who did not survive into later, better historically recorded times and who are therefore something of a historical mystery. The Moabites, Jebusites, Edomites and Ammonites were small tribes who unlike the great empires of Egypt, Assyria and Babylon left little evidence behind of their existence for later historians to study.
For many centuries it was thought that the Hittites were like that, a small nation of people who got swallowed up by the great empires, as the Hebrews almost did, and who disappeared from history. The early 19th century historian Francis William Newman even proclaimed that “…no Hittite king could have compared in power to the king of Judah”. Boy did he get it wrong, in fact the rediscovery of the Hittite kingdom as one of the great powers of the Bronze Age Mediterranean is among the greatest achievements of the science of archaeology.
The first evidence indicating that the Hittites were more important than the bible seemed to indicate was unearthed in Egypt where archaeologists came across numerous inscriptions mentioning the Hittites as an important people. In fact they discovered far more mentions of the Hittites than they did of the Hebrews. The true status of the Hittites really became clear however with the first excavations of the ruins of their capital Hattusa in north central Anatolia, that’s modern Turkey.
Although the ruins were first discovered in 1884, large-scale excavations of Hattusa only began in 1906 by the archaeologist Hugo Winckler. In addition to determining the full scale of Hattusa, which ranked in size with other great Bronze Age cities like Luxor, Nineveh or Babylon, Winckler also found the royal archives of the Hittite kings, 10,000 clay tablets inscribed in cuneiform but in an unknown language.
In the century since then much has been learned about the Hittite empire, which extended over the central and eastern portions of modern Turkey along with down the coast of modern Syria as far south as Lebanon. It is even thought by some that the city of Troy in what is now western Turkey may have been loosely associated with the Hittite empire.
In the time of the Pharaoh Rameses II, 1274 BCE, the Egyptians and the Hitties, under their king Hattusili III fought what may have been the greatest battle of the Bronze Age at Kadesh. The battle was pretty much a draw and five years later the two empires concluded a treaty that lasted more than a hundred years until the collapse of the Hittite empire.
When the language of the Hittites was deciphered from the cuneiform tables it was found to be Indo-European in nature, more closely related to Greek or Latin than Aramaic or Hebrew. Historians are of the opinion that the people who became the Hittites entered Anatolia from either the Balkans or Ukraine around 2000 BCE and either conquered of intermingled with a non-Indo-European people known as the Hattians from who the name Hattusa seems to have come.
The Hittite empire came to an end around 1200 BCE as the eastern Mediterranean world was rocked by a series of invasions by ‘Sea Peoples’ who spread destruction from Greece through Mesopotamia down to Egypt. While Assyria and Egypt both endured the barbarian assaults it was the Hittite empire that suffered the most, the capital Hattusa being burned to the ground around 1180 BCE. For a hundred or so years after that there were several smaller, less powerful nations who called themselves Hittites. Those later Hittite kingdoms did not last long however as they were all swallowed up by either the growing Assyrian empire or by the Phrygian people who settled in western and central Anatolia, and who may have been one of the ‘sea peoples’.
Even after 100 years of archaeological research there is still much that we don’t know, or don’t understand about the Hittite people. One place that has epitomized that mystery is the sanctuary of Yazilikaya, a religious shrine with numerous rock carvings just a short distance from the walls of Hattusa. While the site of Yazilikaya, and its many bas-reliefs have been studied for a century now their meaning had eluded archaeologists.
Now a new paper by a diverse group of scientists claims to have solved the riddle of Yazilikaya. The team includes Serkan Demirel of the department of archaeology at Karadeniz Technical University in Trabzon, Turkey, Eberhard Zangger, President of Luwian Studies in Zurich, Switzerland, Rita Gautschy of the department of ancient civilizations at the University of Basel in Switzerland along with E. C. Krupp, the Director of the Griffith Observatory in Los Angeles, California. By the inclusion of an astronomer in a paper about an ancient temple you can probably guess that the researchers maintain that Yazilikaya, in common with many ancient religious sites, was part temple and part astronomical observatory.
In fact the rock art displayed at Yazilikaya represents both the Hittite view of the structure of the cosmos while at the same time functioning as a calendar. Like many cultures the Hittites believed the Universe to be divided into three parts, the heavens, the Earth and the underworld. Well the shrine at Yazilikaya is divided into two chambers, referred to as A and B. On the north wall of chamber A is a rock carving that portrays the northern constellations that never set below the horizon, like the Big and Little dipper along with Cassiopeia. These constellations are accompanied by carvings of the major gods of the Hittite pantheon, the storm god Teššub, his wife Ḫebat and their son Šarruma and together they represent heaven. On the two side walls of chamber A are carvings of fertility and other more Earthly types of god marching in procession toward the greater gods at to the north. They represent the Earth.
The entrance to chamber B is guarded by lion headed daemons and also contains a three-meter tall statue of Nergal, the god of the underworld. Along the wall of chamber B is a carving of twelve gods of the underworld carrying sickles, a common representation for the gathering of the dead.
According to the study the sets of carvings, except the northern one, could be used as a calendar keeping track of both the phases of the Moon as well as the days of the year. Such archaeoastronomical alignments and religious observatories in the ancient world are coming to be accepted and studied more and more by archaeologists since the idea was first suggested for Stonehenge back in the 1960s. Many religious ideas and concepts really began as attempts by ancient man to understand the nature and movements of the sky above our heads.
The Hittites were once a powerful, wealthy people whose empire played a leading role in the beginnings of civilization during the Bronze Age. Understanding their culture and religion is necessary if we are to understand how we got to where we are.