We all know that the cosmic zoo has many weird and wild inhabitants. In addition to the familiar stars, planets, moons, asteroids and comets there are quasars, black holes, neutron stars and brown dwarfs to name just a few. One of the least understood types of objects are known as Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) which were first discovered in 2007. FRBs are exactly what their name implies, extremely powerful radio emissions that only last for a few thousandths of a second.
The fact that FRBs only last around a millisecond makes them very hard to study. Think about it; let’s say a radio astronomer is studying the Andromeda galaxy when out of nowhere, bam there’s a burst of radio energy that’s gone before he can react to it. Hopefully the scientist’s instruments have recorded something but there certainly wasn’t time to make any detailed measurements of the FRB.
For several years it was thought that FRBs were one offs, that is to say whatever object had generated an FRB would never generate another. Just a couple of years ago however the first repeating FRBs were identified and now it is thought that astronomers have identified about 50 repeating FRBs. The question then is whether all FRB sources are actually repeaters, although with different time scales.
Recognizing some FRBs as periodic has allowed radio astronomers to train their instruments on a known repeater and then just wait to catch the full event. Recently this technique has enabled astronomers to catch the furthest ever seen FRB at a distance of about 8 billion light years away. To be able to be heard from such an enormous distance the FRB, which has been given the designation FRB 20220610A, had to pack as much energy as our Sun emits in 30 years into a pulse less that one thousandth of a second.
Although there is a great deal that is still unknown about FRBs a consensus of opinion is growing that FRBs are generated by neutron stars with extremely strong magnetic fields known as magnetic-stars or magnetars. (See my post of 21November 2020 concerning neutron stars) Neutron stars are the remnants of big stars, at least 10 times the mass of our Sun, that have exploded as supernovas., Whatever is left, about the mass of our Sun, is crushed down to a size about 20-40km in diameter, becoming in a sense a big atomic nucleus made almost exclusively of neutrons. Even though astronomers have begun to agree on the source of FRBs however there was still a debate over how magnetars stars generated the radio outbursts, the two leading candidates being either something like a solar flare or some kind of starquake in the magnetar’s surface.
Recently a new study by Tomonori Totani and Yuya Tsuzuki at the University of Tokyo’s Department of Astronomy has compared the time and energy distribution of some 7,000 FRBs from those 50 repeating sources to seismic measurements of nearly 6,000 Earthquakes from Japan. What the two found was several similarities between the two sets of data, especially when it came to aftershocks. In summary the similarities were:
1. The probability for an aftershock occurring was 10-50%
2. The probability for an aftershock decreased with time as a power of time.
3. The probability for an aftershock remains constant even as the mean rate of the original FRB changes.
4. There is no correlation between the energies of the main FRB and any aftershocks.
On the other hand the astronomers found no relationship between FRBs and solar flares. This analysis strongly suggests that FRBs are generated by starquakes on the surface of magnetars. If that is true then we may be able to use the data from FRBs to help us better understand these ultra-dense onjects.
Doctors Totani and Tsuzuki intend to continue their analysis, hoping that further measurements from more FRBs may tell us more about FRBs and the weird cosmic wonders that generate them.
Two discoveries from the age of the dinosaurs along with a more recent one that straddles the borderline between paleontology and anthropology headline this post. As usual I begin with the oldest and work forward in time.
England’s southern coast is one of the most famous and important fossil areas in the world, in many ways that is where the very science of paleontology got it’s start. At the eastern end the ‘White Cliffs of Dover’ are made of chalk from the cretaceous period, indeed the whole cretaceous period is named for the Latin word for chalk because of those cliffs. The west end of England’s south coast is also well know for it’s fossils from the Triassic period, the dawn of the age of the dinosaurs.
It’s the middle of the southern shore, the co-called Jurassic coast that includes the Isle of Wight that is most famous for its fossils however. It’s here that during a walk along the water’s edge that fossil enthusiast Phil Jacobs noticed the tip of a snout lying on the ground beneath a cliff. Realizing that the snout must have just eroded out of the cliff face Jacobs secured the bones and quickly got his friend Steve Etches to help him see if there were more of the animal’s bones still in the cliff. Thus they began a difficult and dangerous excavation that took several months but by the end the two fossil hunters had succeeded in finding a 2 meter long skull of a Pliosaur, the apex predator of the Jurassic oceans some 150 million years ago.
Although the fossil still has to be thoroughly studied in detail it appears that the skull is the most complete ever found of a Pliosaur and based upon the size of the skull in life the animal would have been 10-12 meters in length. The jaws contained 130 teeth, long and razor sharp and the muscle attachment points on the skull indicate that the creature could have had a biting force of 33,000 Newtons, twice that of a saltwater crocodile, the strongest bite in the world today, all in all a real sea monster.
And that skull will be revealed to the world in a BBC special, hosted by David Attenborough no less. The special is scheduled for New Year’s day in the UK and hopefully will be seen soon thereafter in the rest of the world. Best of all, Jacobs and Etches are certain that the rest of the animal is still in that cliff awaiting excavation. Maybe the money and notoriety generated by the special will enable them to dig out the rest of this extraordinary beast.
And speaking of apex predators paleontologists at the University of Calgary and the Royal Tyrrell Museum of Paleontology have announced the discovery of a juvenile specimen of Gorgosaurus libratus, a relative of the famous Tyrannosaurus rex, with the contents of its stomach, its last meals intact. The specimen itself is about 75 million years old and is thought to have been between 5 and 7 years old at its death. In life the animal would have weighed some 350 kg, stood as tall as a tall man while measuring more than four meters from its nose to the tip of its tail.
What makes this specimen so interesting however are the bones found inside the animal’s stomach, four drumsticks from another type of birdlike dinosaur called Citipes, each of whom would have been about the size of a modern turkey. The bones were articulated, in other words they hadn’t been broken up by chewing, and one pair appears to have been more digested than the other so they may be the animal’s last two meals. Also, there is no evidence for the rest of the bodies of the Citipes but it’s unlikely that a meat eater like G libratus wouldn’t have eaten the rest of its prey if it could.
Previous finds of young Tyrannosaurids have indicated that they were actually more slender, more agile and quick-footed than the bone crushing monsterous adults and the G libratus specimen fits in that picture. The animal’s last meal (s) also contributes to that idea because Citipes were rather small and fast animals themselves, so the young G libratus would have had to be a fast predator to catch them. A very different creature from the heavily muscled giants they grew up to be.
Finally today I like to discuss a new study from the Aarhus University in Denmark that lies on the border between paleontology and anthropology. The study considers again the question of what caused the extinction of the large ice-age mammals like mammoths, mastodons, cave bears, Irish elk and etc. As a group these animals are known as the mega-fauna which is defined as any species that weighs more than 44 kg when fully grown. For decades now the debate has raged over whether these species died out because of climate change, the ice ages, or were they hunted to extinction by our ancestors.
The study examined DNA from 139 large species still alive today such as elephants, rhinos, oxen, cattle, deer, kangaroos and even our cousins the great apes. What the researchers found was that over the last 800,000 years the populations of large animals had remained fairly stable even while the polar ice caps grew and then receded about every 100,000 years. Then, just about 50,000 years ago the populations of even those species that still survive showed a marked decline, at just the time when mammoths and the others went extinct. If the populations had stayed steady for over 700,000 years of climate change it is very unlikely that climate caused the sudden population loss.
More than that, the precise timing of the population drop always coincided with the period when archaeology indicates that the first humans entered the area. If correct it seems more likely than not that our species destruction of the environment isn’t a recent development but rather has been a part of our nature from the start.
One subject that appears quite often in Science Fiction novels and stories is the difficulty of trying to establish communication with an alien intelligent lifeform. In H. G. Wells’ ‘The First Men in the Moon’ Doctor Cavour tries to communicate with the Selenites by starting with geometric shapes, all intelligent creatures would recognize them after all. The same technique was used in the novel ‘Planet of the Apes’ (Of course in the movie they skipped that whole problem by having the apes speak perfect English!).
Some SF stories use a shortcut to get past this difficulty. In ‘The Day the Earth stood Still’ the alien Klaatu speaks perfect English because his people have been monitoring our radio and TV broadcasts while in the old ‘Star Trek’ series the crew of the Enterprise had a “Universal Translator” that allowed conversation with all kinds of alien lifeforms. The main plot of the recent movie ‘Arrival’ (2016) was actually about the problem of learning how to communicate with aliens.
The new novel ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ by Ray Nayler is also concerned with learning to communicate with an alien intelligence but this one is not extraterrestrial, and if you’re thinking chimpanzees or dolphins you’re wrong. The aliens in ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ are our planet’s most intelligent invertebrates, octopuses.
Set in the near future Doctor Ha Nguyen has been studying octopuses and other cephalopods her entire career. She has been sent to the island of Con Dao by a multi-billion dollar, International Corporation named DIANIMA to study the local octopus population in an effort to determine if they are beginning to develop the basics of a primitive culture. DIANIMA has turned the island into a into a nature preserve in order to protect the intelligent octopuses in a world on the brink of environmental collapse due to climate change, overfishing etc, etc. The only two other inhabitants of Con Dao are Altantseseg who is in charge of security for the preserve and Evrim, the world’s first, and by law only, android.
Of course the octopuses have developed not just the beginnings of culture but have a well developed language consisting of symbols that they cause to appear on their skin. Remember octopuses, along with other cephalopods, use chromatophores in their skin for camouflage. At the same time they can alter the very texture of their skin making it smooth like a stone or rough like sand or even bumpy like a piece of coral. In addition to a sophisticated language the octopuses in ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ have also mastered the making of primitive tools from sea shells and coral entering what Dr. Nguyen christens their ‘Sea Shell Age’.
It’s the work of Dr. Nguyen that is the central portion of ‘The Mountain in the Sea. Her discussions with the Android Evrim about the difficulty of understanding a creature with such different senses than we have are the crux of the story. Despite evolving on the same planet as us octopuses are true aliens with no real hard parts for structure, with eight tentacles, each of which has a rudimentary brain of its own and can behave semi-independently. In many ways they are creatures whose ‘umwelt’ see my post about the book ‘Immense World’ by Ed Yong, whose mental view of the world is so much different from our own. At the same time I have a feeling that the character of the android Evrim was added into the novel in order to show how difficult it could be to understand and communicate with a creature of our own making.
This subject of other animals here on Earth having the beginnings of culture is actually a hot topic right now. Over the last several decades considerable evidence has been discovered indicating different speech patterns, let’s not quite call it language, among different populations of dolphins, those in the Atlantic ocean as opposed to those in the Pacific or Indian oceans. The same appears to be true between Orcas who live close to the shorelines of the continents versus those who live in the deep ocean. And most interesting of all may be the fact that different populations of Chimpanzees in different areas of Africa not only differ in their vocal calls but even differ in their use of tools! (See my post of 16 March 2019).
There are subplots in ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ as well. The island is closely guarded by Altantseseg using a variety of lethal drones because of poachers who try to invade the reserve in order to plunder its resources, mainly fish. There is also another entity, corporation or nation state, which is trying to perform a hostile takeover of DIANIMA for unknown reasons. In fact some parts of ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ are almost written like a spy novel or conspiracy theory.
For the most part however ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ is a story about what it means to be an intelligent creature, to have a culture, a civilization. Because of that ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ is not an exciting book, not a novel for those who are looking for a lot of action. It’s a thought provoking book and when it sticks to that aspect of its story it does a good job. The spy stuff or the poacher part falls kind of flat however. Really ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ could have used one more edit to try to tighten up what are supposed to the action sections.
Nevertheless ‘The Mountain in the Sea’ is worth reading, both for its viewpoint on the harm we’re doing to our fellow creatures here on Earth as for its thoughts on communication.
Every decade or so physicists here in the US submit their wish lists of the experiments they would like to see funded by the Federal Government through the Department of Energy via that department’s High Energy Physics Advisory Panel (HEPAP). Gone are the days when all Galileo had to do to advance science was to drop a couple of balls from the leaning tower of Pisa or all Ben Franklin had to do was go fly a kite. Today Big Science takes Big Money and much of that comes from the approximately one billion dollars that Washington spends on High Energy Physics (HEP).
Taking input from hundreds of physicists a panel convened by the American Physical Society’s Division of Particle’s and Fields (DPF) drew up a wish list of experiments that, in their opinion, should be funded in order to provide the most science for the dollar. This panel, known as the Particle Physics Project Prioritization Panel (P5), was chaired by the distinguished physicist Hitoshi Murayama of the University of California at Berkeley. On December the eighth the panel released its report to both the Department of Energy and the public.
In the report the P5 panel called for the continued funding of projects now under construction or undergoing upgrades. These experiments include the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), see my post of 30 July 2017, which it is hoped will finally give us an accurate measurement of the neutrino’s mass. Another neutrino experiment is the ICE CUBE neutrino telescope at the South Pole which just this year gave us our first image of what the Milky Way galaxy looks like, in neutrinos, see my post of 19 August 2023 Physicists hope that the planned expansion of ICE CUBE will reveal even more secrets of what the Universe looks like when you see it using neutrinos rather than light.
Finally the US should continue its contribution to the major upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN in Switzerland. This upgrade is intended to increase the ‘luminosity’, that is the number of particles in the collider beam in order to obtain more events. This upgrade will increase the precision of the LHC’s measurements, hopefully pointing the way to new physics.
Of course the exciting part of the P5 report is the new experiments that are being proposed for funding. These include a small project entitled DarkSide-20K that is hoped to reveal some of the secrets of Dark Matter. Another such project is Belle II that will examine more closely the decay paths of the particles created in particle colliders.
But perhaps the most exciting long term project will be the initial design concept of a new American particle collider that will surpass the LHC in energy. You see one of the problems with the LHC that it uses protons in its collisions. Protons however are themselves made up of three smaller particles called quarks so when you smash two protons what actually happens is that a quark from each of the protons collide. Because of that you only get one third the available energy that gets turned into new particles. The other four quarks don’t get involved in the collision so two-thirds of the energy is kind of wasted.
One way of getting all the energy is to use a true elementary particle like the electron. Because of their small mass however an electron collider with the same energy as LHC would have to be thousands of kilometers in diameter, a project that would simply cost too much. One option that is being proposed is to use the electron’s heavier cousin the muon. Muons don’t survive very long however so there’s a lot of work to be done deciding exactly which way to go.
Another exciting possibility is the use of a new technology in particle acceleration, the Wakefield accelerator in which charged particles are propelled by an ionized plasma like a surfboard by a wave. The advantage of the Wakefield accelerator is that it requires much less distance to achieve the same amount of acceleration. Ever since the first atom-smasher was built particle accelerators have gotten bigger and bigger, and more expensive with each increase in size. The construction and operation of the LHC costs as much as fighting a small war, which is why dozens of countries share the expense. It is hoped that the use of Wakefield accelerators could reverse this trend but as with any new technology there is still much to be learned about them in order to both make the maximum use of their advantages while overcoming their shortfalls. The P5 report requests about $10 million dollars to fund a preliminary design for the new particle accelerator that will address these issues.
Now, all of that is dependent upon the amount of funding that comes from the Federal Government through the Department of Energy. It is expected that Congress will give HEPAP a 3% increase over last year’s funding which would basically offset inflation. That’s assuming of course that Congress gets its act together and actually manages to pass a budget. With all the fighting going on in Washington it’s hard to see that coming to pass any time soon.
It used to be that the US led the world in Big Science. We always had the biggest particle accelerator, the biggest telescopes, and the biggest plasma reactor, none of that is true anymore, see my post of 28 June 2017. The technology we enjoy today came from that Big Science we conducted back in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s. We simply need to invest more in the future if we expect to have any.
Many creatures in the natural world build structures, Bees build their hives, many birds build nests and Beavers build their lodges. Human beings however have rebuilt the world with all of our structures. It’s not surprising therefore that much of the work of archaeologists concerns human structures, how and why they were built.
The first structure I’ll discuss today is a very well known one, perhaps the best known of all the prehistoric structures, Stonehenge in England. Much has already been written about this most famous of stone circles so I’ll just mention a few points of importance for today’s story.
Begun about the year 2200BCE Stonehenge was initially a circular trench dug into the soil with the excavated earth forming a circular henge inside the trench. It wasn’t until some 500 years later that the first stones were brought to the site and placed inside the earthen ring. These first stones are known as ‘Bluestones’, each weighing about 5 metric tonnes that were brought from the Mynydd Preseli region of western Wales, a full 290 kilometers from Stonehenge. See my post of 27 February 2019. How stone aged men managed to transport these large stones such a great distance is still a subject of controversy.
The larger ‘Sarsen Stones’, some weighing as much as 55 metric Tonnes, were brought to the site around the year 1500 BCE. While these massive rocks came from a much closer location just some 25 kilometers to the north bringing them to the Stonehenge site must still have required the cooperation of hundreds if not thousands of people indicating a society with considerable organization.
Several of the individual stones at Stonehenge have been given special names such as the Heel stone, which sits away from the other stones near the entrance to the original, and the slaughter stone, so named because early archaeologists thought it could have been used for human sacrifice. Both of these stones are Sarsen stones.
One of the Bluestones also has a special name, the Altar stone, so named because the other Bluestones seem to orient towards it as if it were the place where certain ceremonies were enacted. Now a new study by researchers at the Department of Geography and Earth Sciences at Aberystwyth University in the UK have questioned whether the Altar stone is in fact a Bluestone after all. For one thing, although the Altar stone is about the same size and shape as the Bluestones the others are primarily igneous rocks while the Altar stone is made of sandstone. Now there are sandstone deposits near the quarry in Whales were the Bluestones came from and it has long been thought that was the Altar stone’s source.
The new study conducted several different analysis of the material of the Altar stone including Ramen Spectroscopy, XRF analysis, optical petrography and SEM-EDS analysis. What the researchers found was that the Altar stone had a significantly higher level of the element Barium than the stones from the Welsh quarry, so it definitely did not come from the same place as the other Bluestones.
Where did the Altar stone come from, no one knows. So now the hunt is on to try to find the geographic source of the Altar stone. At the same time archaeologists now have to try to understand why that particular stone, from wherever it came from, was brought to Stonehenge. Now we have yet another mystery to add to all the mysteries surrounding Stonehenge.
The second structure in the news recently may not be as famous as Stonehenge but it is certainly much older, in fact at an estimated age of 475,000 years old it may be the earliest wooden structure known have to been built by humans. In fact the structure wasn’t built by our species Homo sapiens but probably by our ancestral species Homo erectus.
The wood was discovered in the sands at the bottom of the river beneath the Kalambo falls in Zambia not far from the border with Tanzania by archaeologists from the University of Liverpool and the University of Aberystwyth. The location had been studied by archaeologists ever since the 1950s and pieces of wood that shows signs of having been worked by humans have been found there before. Those artifacts included sticks used for digging, the hafts of spears and wood used to build fires. The wooden pieces from the riverbed were preserved because they had been essentially ‘pickled’ by the acidic water of the river.
The new find however consists of two much larger wooden logs, each about 2m long, which had been worked by stone tools in such a way as to fit together in a ‘T’ shape. The archaeologists who found the logs think that the wooden T probably served either as a foundation for either a dwelling of some kind or more likely an earthen platform from which to fish in the river.
Unlike earlier pieces of wood from beneath the falls the team was able to get a more precise date on the logs by using a new dating technique known as luminescence dating. This technique depends on the fact that grains of sand will pick up natural radioactivity from the environment over time. By heating up those grains and analyzing the light they emit their age can be determined. Luminescence dating is quickly becoming an important tool in archaeology and paleontology because it is able to measure the age of objects that are too old to be determined by Carbon14 but too young to use Potassium-Argon dating.
The find in Zambia pushes back in time the date of the first known use of wood to build structures showing that even our remote ancestor were capable of innovation and invention.
Quit a lot happened in space this past month for both manned and robotic missions. While I usually start with the manned missions this month the Lucy space probe made an interesting and surprising discovery so I’ll begin there.
The Lucy probe, launched back on the 16th of October in 2021, is on a mission to study the Trojan asteroids of Jupiter beginning in 2027. For a description of the Trojan asteroids see my post of 6 January 2017. Before reaching the Trojans however Lucy was scheduled to pass by a small main belt asteroid named Dinkinesh, which means, “you are marvelous” in the Amharic language of Ethiopia. It was during the planning for the mission that the engineers at Goddard Space Center decided that Dinkinesh would represent a good opportunity to test Lucy’s cameras and other sensors so the small asteroid was added to the list of asteroids Lucy would study making a total of eight planned flybys at launch.
Turns out that studying Dinkinesh was a great idea because as Lucy passed by on the first of November the images sent back by the probe showed that the small asteroid, about 790m in diameter, had an even smaller moon orbiting around it. While pleased with the surprising discovery the technicians controlling Lucy at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab were equally satisfied at the performance of Lucy’s Terminal Tracking System and it’s Long Range Reconnaissance Imager. Having successfully encountered Dinkinesh Lucy is now ready to begin its prime mission of studying Jupiter’s Trojan asteroids.
Closer to Earth China has successfully carried out a crew exchange at their Tiangong space station. The station, which is smaller than the International Space Station (ISS), is normally crewed by three taikonauts (as China calls its astronauts). For the past six months it had been the crew of China’s Shenzhou-16 manned mission who had occupied Tiangong but on 26 October China launched the Shenzhou-17 mission from its space port on the isle of Xinhau. A day later Shenzhou-17 docked at Tiangong allowing the Shenzhou-16 crew to return home to Earth, which they did successfully on the 31st of October.
Keep in mind the fact that both NASA and the Russian space agency Roscosmos have carried out dozens of such crew exchanges at the ISS over the last two decades. The fact that China is now keeping its space station manned so smoothly and professionally however is a testament to how far China’s manned space program has come.
Two other news items may tell us something about the future direction of space exploration in the decades to come. The first story concerns Sierra Space Corporation’s long awaited Dream Chaser space plane / mini shuttle. The Dream Chaser design does in fact bear a striking resemblance to the space shuttle and is intended to operate in much the same fashion. Launched into orbit on top of an Atlas rocket or perhaps even a Space X falcon 9 the Dream Chaser would dock at the ISS or another space station. Returning to Earth the Dream Chaser would fly into the atmosphere, experiencing no more than 1.5 g’s in the process and land on a runway like any ordinary plane.
Initially intended to deliver cargo to and from Earth orbit Sierra Space hopes that one day the Dream Chaser will also carry people into orbit. Right now however the Dream Chaser still has yet to fly. Indeed the first Dream Chaser space plane has just recently finished its construction at the company’s factory at Louisville, Colorado, a suburb of Denver. That first Dream Chaser, which has been named Tenacity, will now be shipped to NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Ohio to undergo a series of tests to verify that it is capable of withstanding the rigors of space.
Dream Chaser represents yet another attempt at finding ways to lower the cost of getting into space in order to expand human exploration. Sierra Space Corporation hopes that the first, unmanned flight of this interesting spaceplane could come as early as next year providing some competition to Space X’s Dragon capsule.
Finally another current limit on our exploration of our Solar System are the low exhaust velocities possible with chemical rocket fuels. I have in several posts discussed both Nuclear and Ion rocket engines which have to potential to provide much greater exhaust velocities and thereby much greater total delta velocities for space travel. See post of 29 April 2020. Recently NASA and the aerospace corporation Aerojet Rocketdyne have carried out a series of tests on the most powerful ion rocket engine ever developed. Known as the Advanced Electric Propulsion System or AEPS the engine operates at a power consumption of 12 kW.
Now ion engines function in a very different way than the chemical rockets we’re used to seeing. In an ion engine the atoms of an inert gas, usually xenon, have an electron stripped from them giving them an electric charge. A high voltage potential then accelerates those ions to a velocity that is scores if not hundreds of times faster than the atoms in a chemical rocket. As the ions are fired out the engine, giving it a thrust, the electrons are reattached to the atoms because otherwise the engine, and the space ship connected to it would quickly build up a tremendous static electric charge.
One major difference between a chemical and an ion rocket engine is that while a chemical rocket gives a big thrust for a few minutes, the first stage of a Space X Falcon 9 only fires for about four minutes, an ion engine gives a small thrust, but it can do so for days or weeks or even years.
NASA has used ion engines in past missions, notably the Dawn deep space probe to the minor planet Ceres and the large asteroid Vesta along with the recently launched Psyche space probe. The space agency hopes to use AEPS on the Gateway space station to be placed in Lunar Orbit sometime around 2025.
Plans for the future even as we have successes in the present, that’s progress in our exploration of space.
In my last post I recounted some of the severe weather events that have already taken place here in the year 2023, a year that will almost certainly be recorded as the warmest in human history, or at least that is until 2024. To be honest I could have written two or three times as much as I did write in that post, extreme weather was basically everywhere this year and many locations around the world suffered for long periods of time or several times over.
The important thing to keep in mind is that in 2023 for the first time the average global temperature could cross over the 1.5ºC above pre-industrial average that scientists have been warning will bring ever greater climate change and the natural disasters that accompany it. If, as now predicted this year’s El Niǹo continues into 2024 then the world could remain above that threshold and next year’s weather could be even worse.
So with the evidence of climate change all around us is the human race as a whole finally waking up to the danger we ourselves are creating? Are governments and the media paying attention, enough attention so that some real progress will finally be made?
The answer of course is both yes and no. There are clear signs that a large fraction of society is becoming very concerned about the world’s environmental future and are ready to do something about it. As you might guess young people are in the forefront of this movement.
A main focus of the efforts undertaken so far by young people worried about their future has been in courtrooms around the world. This summer a lawsuit was filed in Montana by 16 of the state’s teenagers alleging that the state government has violated the Montana constitution by failing to “maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment for present and future generations.” The Judge in the case agreed, ruling that the state was violating the rights of young people when it enacted policies that prohibit the state from considering the effects on the environment of fossil fuel extraction in the state. Whether or not that judgment will affect the coal and oil industry in Montana remains to be seen, indeed the state is already appealing the decision. However the simple fact that a of that kind case could be brought and won in such a deep red state as Montana is clear evidence that more and more people are becoming concerned about our changing climate. Similar lawsuits have been filed by a group of teenagers in Hawaii and by young people suing the Federal Government as well.
Meanwhile in other countries a similar lawsuit was brought by 6 youngsters in Portugal, but these plaintiffs were a bit more ambitious, they decided to sue the entire European Union along with the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Russia and Turkey, 32 countries in all. In this case the plaintiffs allege that the increasing temperatures and drought conditions in their country are generating a Sahara desert like environment in Portugal that is again to the determent of their future lives. They blame this growing problem on the reluctance of the 32 governments to enact significant policies for fighting climate change, specifically legislation to curb CO2 emissions.
This suit, brought before the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg could actually have major consequences, at least for the EU countries. Again the idea is that the entire future lives of these young people are being harmed by the shortsighted policies of the present. The success for these lawsuits, even if only partial so far, will generate more and more such cases until governments are finally forced to take real action.
Which some governments are actually doing, if only in small steps so far. Here in the US last year the Biden administration, as a part of its Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), succeed in allocating the most money ever for subsidies to boost green energy production. This money is targeted not only for new solar and wind power projects but also to help reduce the cost of electric vehicles (EV) and to increase the number of EV charging stations throughout the nation. At the same time President Biden has announced the formation of his American Climate Corps (ACC), an organization patterned after the New Deal’s Civilian Conservation Corps and intended as a training program for young people leading to good jobs in green energy and climate mitigation. Although both the ACC and the IRA are insufficient to solve the coming climate crisis they are at least steps in the right direction, and can serve as foundations for further programs if the political will for fighting climate change increases.
A few individual states are also taking action. In California the state’s attorney general has filed a lawsuit against Exxon-Mobile, BP, Shell, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, all the big oil companies alleging that for decades they have been fully aware of the effect that fossil fuel emissions were having on the environment. The suit contends that the oil companies deliberately continued to minimize the threat of global warming while suppressing the data collected by their own scientists.
Meanwhile voters in Switzerland have passed a referendum calling for their government to enact legislation to curb greenhouse gas emissions by their country. The measure, which passed with 59.1% of the vote for and 40.9% against requires Switzerland to achieve ‘net zero’ carbon emissions by 2050. More immediately it provides more than 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.3 billion US dollars) to help Swiss citizens and companies develop greener energy programs.
In parallel with the actions taken by environmental activists and groups there has been a significant increase in the coverage of climate change in many, although certainly not all, media outlets. During the heat of the Summer CNN and MSNBC devoted extensive time to the major environmental stories like Phoenix’s streak of days over 110ºF, the wildfires in Canada and the resulting smoke that drifted down into the US, and of course the great loss of life in the wildfire in Maui. So important were these stories that even Fox news was forced to cover them to some extent. The winner for news coverage of climate change however has to be the Weather Channel, which has even created a daily program, Pattrn, devoted to climate change and other environmental issues.
So there is progress, even if only in small steps so far. But as Isaac Newton pointed out, “For every action there is an equal an opposite reaction,” and the climate deniers have been busy as well. So, for every attempt at government action to fight global warming there has been an effort to deny or hide the facts, such as the decision by the Florida Department of Education, as directed by the state’s Governor Ron DeSantis, to approve climate change denying videos for use in the classroom.
At the same time court cases brought by citizens concerned about the future of our planet are opposed by lawyers and officials bought and paid for by the petroleum industry who care about nothing but their next quarter’s profit. The lawsuit won in Montana is already being appealed while other cases are being delayed or obstructed.
Finally, even as the overwhelming number of environmental stories has forced Fox news to actually cover global warming they still try with all of their might to obscure the issue by making such absurd claims as that the extreme temperatures endured by Phoenix this summer were caused by ‘the heat island effect’. ‘Heat Islands’ caused by the concrete and asphalt in a city is a real enough phenomenon but one that doesn’t explain the equally high temperatures in the desert around Phoenix, nor the high temperatures in Greece, or Portugal or Vietnam or etc, etc, etc.
About the only thing we can say for certain concerning the world’s reaction to 2023 being the hottest year on record is that the political war over global warming is heating up. Right now world leaders have gathered in the United Arab Emirates for the COP28 meeting on climate change. As I write these words there is considerable division over whether the phrase ‘phasing out of fossil fuels’ manages to get included in the final report that every country must agree to or will the entire conference break apart over the issue. I’ll be sure to keep you informed.
Addendum: The COP28 final accord has been agreed upon in Dubai and it’s something of a victory for the struggle to fight climate change. For the first time the conferences final document does for the first time explicitly mention fossil fuels as the leading cause of climate change. (Think about that, it took world leaders 28 years just to finally agree that coal, oil and natural gas are causing climate change.) In addition the final accord also calls for a ‘Transitioning away from’ the use of fossil fuels.
Now don’t get too excited. The timetable for that transitioning is very non-specific, and there are no enforcement provisions of any kind. Any country that wants to can simply ignore their commitment any time they choose. Nevertheless getting 198 nations, many of them fossil fuel producers or are dependent on fossil fuels, to agree to someday getting rid of those pollutants is a major achievement.
Perhaps the climate disasters of the past year have finally made the nations of the world take notice of the disaster looming not too far in the future. The nations of the world have made a commitment; it’s going to be up to all of us to see to it that they keep it.
O’k I’ll go into a little more detail. As a personal aside I’d like to let everyone know that Godzilla and I are the same age. I made my premier in Philadelphia just a month and a couple of days before the Toho studio film ‘Gojira’ (1954), which is the big green guy’s name in Japanese, made its premier in Tokyo.
In that first film Godzilla was a prehistoric creature, a dinosaur released from suspended animation by, and mutated by the first atomic bombs and tests. The film was intended as an allegory on the existential threat of nuclear weapons.
Like all of us Godzilla has had his ups and downs. Starting with his third film ‘King Kong versus Godzilla’ (1962) Toho started teaming Godzilla with other monsters. In the film ‘Ghidorah’ (1964) Godzilla becomes a ‘good guy’ protecting the Earth, if not necessarily mankind, from the title monster.
For the next few movies Godzilla became not only more heroic but more of a child’s character, with the 1970s representing Godzilla’s low point. For the 30th anniversary of ‘Gojira’ Toho studio released the film ‘Godzilla 1984’ where the monster becomes once again, well a monster. Since that time the Toho films have kept Godzilla a fearsome monster even when he fights against other, more destructive monsters.
Starting in 2014 an American studio, Legendary Pictures, has begun a series of Godzilla movies in cooperation with Toho in Japan. In those movies Godzilla is portrayed as an anti-hero, protecting the Earth from any and all threats, both other monsters and even human beings.
‘Godzilla minus One’ is all Toho however and in fact the film is being shown here in America in Japanese with English subtitles, the only way to truly experience Godzilla. The movie starts in the final days of World War II with a Japanese Kamikaze pilot named Koichi Shikishima, nicely played by Ryunosuke Kamiki, who has decided to abandon his suicide mission and stay alive rather than sacrifice himself for a lost cause. Claiming that his plane is malfunctioning he lands on Odo Island where a Japanese repair base is located. While the repair crew checks out the plane they are all attacked by a dinosaur-like creature, ‘Godzilla’. When told to use his plane’s guns to kill the beast Koichi again saves himself, while most of the technicians are killed by the creature.
Rescued from the island Koichi returns to a defeated Japan whose citizens are trying to rebuild their country from the devastation of the war. This human story is probably the best plot for a Godzilla movie ever, clearly showing the trauma to the Japanese people caused by their defeat and Koichi’s shame at his cowardice. Their government’s adherence to a code of honour and victory had made defeat seem impossible so the reality of their situation is incomprehensible to them.
At the same time the creature Godzilla gets caught up in the atomic bomb test at Bikini atoll in 1946. The radiation of the bomb causes the creature to not only grow much larger but it also acquires the ability to regenerate along with a heat ray that it can fire from its mouth. If the war has brought Japan back down to zero, Godzilla will now take it to minus one, that’s the meaning of the movie’s title.
I do consider ‘Godzilla minus One’ to be the best Godzilla movie ever, even better than the original ‘Gojira’ from 1954, for two reasons. For one thing the special effects are some of the best I’ve ever seen. Several times in these posts I know I’ve complained about CGI looking rather cartoonish but the CGI in ‘Godzilla minus One’ is really good. Now I know it’s not fair to compare the special effects of a movie from 70 years ago to those of a movie today but still the fact is that the effects in ‘Godzilla minus One’ are really good. The battle scenes in particular.
The other reason I think ‘Godzilla minus One’ is the best is the allegory. As I said above in ‘Gojira’ the monster is an allegory for nuclear weapons and warfare in general. Even so the original movie still displays a belief in self sacrifice and ‘a noble death’ when the scientist Serizawa uses his discovery of an ‘oxygen destroyer’ to kill Gojira but then sacrifices himself to prevent his discovery from causing further destruction.
In ‘Godzilla minus One’ the monster is still the same allegory but the people of Japan only fight it to save themselves. There’s no sense of glory or honour, nothing remains of the ‘Bushido code’ that Imperial Japan once sacrificed itself to. To me that change of attitude is a good thing, a philosophy the world needs to hear right now.
I do have one little complaint however. In order to keep the fight against Godzilla a Japanese only thing the movie states that ‘tensions’ between the US and the USSR prevent the US from taking action against Godzilla. That’s a bit of a lame excuse, especially since at that time Japan was occupied by about four divisions of US Army troops and Japan was actually ruled by General Douglas MacArthur. The Japanese people at that time actually referred to MacArthur as their Shogun and at least the General is mentioned in the film.
So all in all I give ‘Godzilla minus One’ my highest approval. Yes it’s true I’ve always loved monster movies but ‘Godzilla minus One’ is also a serious movie taking on important ideas even while the title character is stomping on cities.
COP28, the annual international conference on Climate Change has started in Dubai, 30November, and so I’ll be posting about global warming the next several weeks.
Barring a miracle now the year 2023 is going to wind up as the hottest year ever recorded for the entire planet and that by a wide margin. The declared culprits of this temperature rise are usually stated in the media as being the steady increase in temperature caused by global warming coupled with the return of the phenomenon El Niǹo in the Pacific Ocean. El Niǹo was last observed back in 2016, the previous hottest year on record before 2023. Together they have caused the Earth’s average temperature to rise very close to the 1.5ºC increase over pre-industrial averages that scientists have been saying for decades now will bring about far worse climate conditions.
And that prediction has certainly appeared to come true. Phoenix Arizona, already one of the hottest cities on Earth, smashed its previous record of consecutive days above 110ºF (43.3ºC), going from 18 to 31. At the same time the city also set a record for most consecutive days where the low temperature at night never got below 90ºF (36.25ºC). (I’ve been to Phoenix and I know it’s a dry heat there but nevertheless I can’t even imagine what a month of temperatures that hot is like.)
Phoenix of course is just one example of record shattering heat; many other parts of the world also saw record high temperatures. Places as far apart as Vietnam, France and China each experienced all time record temperatures. For a few days in August the entire nation of Iran was forced to shut down all but emergency services because it was simply too hot for anyone to remain outdoors for any length of time. And just to put a cap on the record setting temperatures on the 17th of November the average temperature for the entire planet passed the 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level mark for the first time, a very dangerous sign of things to come.
Then there were the massive wildfires around the planet in places like Greece, China and even Hawaii where 99 people died as a wildfire surged across the island of Maui. But by far the worst fires were the hundreds that spread throughout Canada. Think about it, Canada is the largest nation on Earth by area and most of that is sparsely populated forest so when Canada suffers its worst ever wildfire season that’s a lot of trees being burned. The smoke from those Canadian fires even drifted south into the United States giving cities like New York, Philadelphia and Minneapolis their worst ever measured air quality conditions.
The increase in heat also brought with it drought conditions across southern Europe, the southern US, China and worst of all large parts of northern Africa, where millions of people live on the edge of survival during the best of times. Drought conditions have caused many of the world’s great rivers to see unprecedented drops in their water levels. For example sections of the Amazon are experiencing their lowest water levels in over 120 years. Meanwhile the drought conditions throughout the Mississippi watershed has caused the flow of that great river to become so anemic that salt water from the Gulf of Mexico has pushed its way upriver almost to the city of New Orleans, threatening the city’s water supply.
At the same time other areas of world like Libya, Scotland and even usually dry southern California were stricken with periods of severe flooding. Providing further evidence that global warming doesn’t cause one particular kind of weather disaster but simply causes all types of weather to become more extreme.
The world’s oceans did not escape from the extreme heat either. The hottest ocean temperature ever recorded was measured in the Caribbean not far from the Florida Keys at over 32.4ºC (90ºF) while the average ocean temperature in early August reached 20.96ºC (69.71ºF), the warmest global average ever recorded. One result of this record heat is that vast stretches of coral reefs around the world are being bleached and could die if temperatures continue to rise.
In the Polar Regions the extreme heat did exactly what you would expect as the sea ice around both the North Pole and Antarctica fell below the lowest levels ever previously observed. Glaciers from the Alps to the Himalayas to the Andes and Rockies all saw a continuation of the melting that has been seen for decades now. A recent survey in Switzerland has concluded that the glaciers in that country famed for its glaciers have lost 10% of their volume in just the last two years, that’s the same amount as was lost over the thirty years between 1960 and 1990. By the by it was the retreat of the world’s glaciers that was actually the first real evidence for global warming.
All in all this has simply been a record shattering year for global warming starting with the month of June being measured as the hottest June ever recorded. Then the month of July was recorded as being simply the hottest month ever recorded. July didn’t keep that record for long however as August surged past July’s average temperature to become the new hottest month of all time. September was not quite so hot, just the hottest September ever recorded, as was October. So unless November and December are really below average in temperature, very unlikely with El Niǹo still warming the eastern Pacific, then 2023 will become the hottest year on record, possibly breaking that crucial 1.5ºC above pre-industrial averages that climatologists are convinced will generate even worst climatic conditions.
So if all of the foregoing just seems like a long litany of climate disasters, well it is, and things are just going to get much worse if we don’t really start taking climate change seriously. Next week I’ll discuss some of the ways that people in government and in the media are starting to take global warming seriously, and some of the ways that the petroleum industry and its apologists are still trying to cause confusion in order to continue to deceive the average person.
Lifted into orbit back in (December of 2021) the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) spent its first months in orbit calibrating its instruments while the world’s astronomers eagerly waited. Well JWST has been in operation for a little over a year now and NASA has taken the opportunity to release some of the more spectacular images sent back by the space telescope.
First a bit of a reminder, JWST operates as most large astronomical telescopes do by taking long exposure digital images of whatever astronomical object it is studying. Most of those ‘deep space’ objects are actually very dim and the only way to get good images is to open up the telescope’s camera and allow the light to gather photon by photon over a long period of time. The images are then computer enhanced to bring out the details the astronomers are interested in. In other words the pictures released by NASA are not what you would see if you actually looked into a telescope at the same object.
Another big difference between JWST and other telescopes, even the Hubble Space Telescope is that JWST views objects primarily in the infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. This allows JWST to see details that are completely invisible to our eyes. That is the reason that JWST had to be placed more than a million kilometers from the Earth because the infrared light coming from both the Sun and the Earth would blind it if it weren’t protected. Again the digital images taken by the JWST in the infrared are then converted by a computer into visible images for astronomers, and the rest of us to see.
The first set of images released from the JWST team at (John Hopkins Physics Lab) was of the well known ‘Whirlpool Galaxy’ often referred to as Messier 51 or just M51. At a distance of 27 million light years from Earth this galaxy is a favourite target of amateur astronomers not far from the Big Dipper in the sky. While M51 is a typical spiral galaxy it happens to be facing our galaxy almost head on so that our view of its spiral arms is simply magnificent. A very beautiful image of M51 was taken by Hubble a dozen years ago and astronomers have been itching to get a view with JWST ever since.
Now they’ve done just that and the image is beyond expectations. One of the reasons JWST operates in the infrared is that infrared light can pass through the gas and dust that tends to blur the details in the spiral arms of galaxies like M51 in visible light. That means that JWST sees deeper into the galaxy, imaging structure never seen before. The same is also true of the small dwarf galaxy NGC 5195 located at the end of M51’s ‘tail’ and whose gravitational field is actually responsible for much of the structure of the Whirlpool’s spiral arms. Images such as JWST’s of the Whirlpool not only are beautiful but they give astrophysicists a lot of data to use in their efforts to understand how galaxies are structured and how they change with time.
The next astronomical object that the JWST team released images of was a lot closer to home, a mere 2,600 light years away. The Ring Nebula or M57 as it is known is located in the night sky near the bright star Vega and is in many ways a glimpse into the future fate of our own Sun. The star at the center of the ring was once about the same mass as our Sun but about a billion years ago it used up all of its hydrogen fuel and began to burn helium. In order to do that the star’s core had to get smaller and hotter which caused its outer regions to puff up making the star a ‘Red Giant’.
Then, less than a million years ago the star started to run out of helium so again its core got smaller and hotter, so much so that its outer regions were ejected from the star into interstellar space. This material was mostly ejected from the star’s equatorial region so it formed a ring around the original star, the Ring Nebula.
Since the ring itself is made up of gas and dust JWST’s ability to see in the infrared makes it the perfect instrument with which to study M57. The images taken by JWST show an enormous amount to detail that was never seen before including about 20,000 dense clumps of matter and a halo of 10 concentric arcs with 400 spikes. JWST also discovered that the central star causing the ring is not alone, it has two smaller companion stars, one about 35 astronomical units (AU) from the central star, an astronomical unit is Earth’s distance from our Sun, and the other more distant at 14,400 AU.
Like the images of the Whirlpool galaxy astrophysicists will have plenty to keep them busy analyzing what JWST has found at the Ring Nebula. Nebulas like the ring are not only important because they show our Sun’s future but also because the material ejected from such nebula is how heavier elements like Oxygen, Carbon, Nitrogen and Silicon get spread around the galaxy so that they can form planets like our Earth.
The final set of images taken by JWST are of Supernova 1987A (SN1987A), the closest supernova to Earth in the last 400 years and the only supernova to date for which we have a picture of the star taken before it blew up. Supernova are rare events that only happen when a huge star, at least 20 times the mass of our Sun has used up all of the nuclear fuel available to it. When that happens the star’s core collapses into a neutron star or even a black hole. The rest of the star explodes in one of the most powerful events in the Universe.
Obviously studying supernovas is a lot of fun but the problem is that they are so rare that detailed data is hard to get, most of the supernovas observed by astronomers are in galaxies billions of light years away. That’s why astronomers were so anxious for JWST to observe SN1987A. The Hubble space telescope had been observing the supernova for years and had watched as the shock wave from the explosion caught up to and slammed into material ejected from the star before it went nova.
The images from JWST show that collision in even greater detail with a cluster of material that looks like a string of pearls. The JWST will continue to observe the dynamic changes around SN1987A while also searching for the neutron star that must have formed in the explosion but which so far has eluded detection.
The images released by the team (at Johns Hopkins) are just the beginning of the marvels that astronomers hope JWST will reveal in the years to come. Just as Hubble altered and illuminated our view of the Universe JWST is sure to do the same.