When I started this blog back in 2016 I had hoped to confine myself to discussion about science and science fiction, after all that’s what it says right at the top of the page! Above all I wanted to try to steer clear of politics as much as possible, if only to avoid any arguments, which is all it seems that politicians do anymore.
It didn’t work out that way. Climate Change and Industrial Pollution are two areas that I knew right from the start were both scientifically important and political powder kegs. In the years since then I have also had to discuss the science behind such issues as vaccines and LGBTQ rights. In this post however I’m going to put aside my reluctance to ‘get political’ and instead give my opinion about Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
Legally I suppose America’s war with Iran began on February 28th of this year as both the US and Israel conducted a series of airstrikes against Iran. One of those attacks actually succeeded in killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini along with other high ranking members of the Iranian government. The attacks against Iran came without warning and without any formal declaration of war and while negotiations were underway in Switzerland, in fact just the day before the attacks the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that the talks were making considerable progress towards a settlement.
(It’s worth noting that back when I was in school the Japanese air raid on Pearl Harbour that pulled America into WW2 was considered a dastardly sneak attack not only because it came without a formal declaration of war but because Japan had sent a ‘special envoy’ to the US in an attempt to negotiate a settlement. But then, I guess in politics your criminal sneak attack is my clever strategy.)
In now appears that the whole idea of attacking Iran without warning wasn’t even Trump’s but that of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The Israel PM has long desired to destroy the Iranian regime but his military lacked the strength to do so alone. So, Netanyahu convinced Trump that a total victory over Iran would be easy with US might.
You can almost imagine the scene, Netanyahu says to Trump, “Mister President this will show the World how strong you are. Other Presidents from Carter to Obama tried to negotiate with the Ayatollah but only you had the courage and muscle to destroy the entire Iranian regime. One devastating blow and you’ll be forever remembered as the President who got America’s revenge on Iran.”
Never mind the fact that Trump committed the US to a war against a country of over 93 million people without congressional approval, remember the US Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war. In fact this war was started by Trump without his even bothering to inform congress, a congress that his party presently controls. As for informing the American people about his reasons for going to war, aside from some rantings on his social media network the less the American people know the more they have to depend on his lies.
Turned out that one blow didn’t do it. Even with their Supreme Leader assassinated the Iranian regime quickly appointed another Ayatollah, who just happened to be the son of the dead Ayatollah. Iran quickly began striking back and the Revolutionary Guard military immediately used its trump card, that of closing the Straight of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which 20% of the World’s oil supply flows.
Experts in international affairs had predicted for decades that if Iran were attacked closing the straight is exactly what they would do. Trump however has little respect for people who know what they’re talking about, he prefers relying on his gut. Within days the price of oil shot up around the world. Apparently Trump thought that since the US was self sufficient in oil production the prices here wouldn’t rise. However, the oil companies, seeing the prices go up in Europe and Asia decided to raise their prices as well and within a week gas in the US went up nearly two dollars a gallon.
So Trump found himself in a mess of his own making, if he launched a full-scale invasion of Iran it would require hundreds of thousands of troops, and thousands of American lives while costing hundreds of billions of dollars. If he just continued the bombing campaign the war would go on for months if not years, all while his rash decision to go to war, and his inability to finish it resulted in his popularity plummeting. No matter how many times he declared that the Iranian military was obliterated, no matter how many times he stated that Iran had no aircraft, no missiles, and no drones left to fight with they just kept on fighting, and the flow of oil through the straight of Hormuz remained only a trickle of what it had been.
After a couple of months even Trump realized that the only way out of his mess was to negotiate a settlement with Iran, but after a sneak attack that killed their Ayatollah the Iranian regime was in little mood to talk peace. To add to the violence Netanyahu had ordered the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) to begin yet another invasion of Lebanon in yet another effort to destroy Iran’s ally Hezbollah, complicating any kind of peace talks even further.
Finally, however, it seemed as though Trump’s seasoned diplomatic team of Nitwit and Nincompoop, also known as Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff (seriously have Kushner and Witkoff ever succeeded in any of the diplomatic missions Trump has sent them on?) managed to secure a ceasefire based on a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The MoU itself only calls for an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports while Iran allows ships to freely pass through the Straight of Hormuz.
There were several other points in the MoU that stunned many GOP members of Congress in disbelief. The US is to organize a $300 billion dollar reconstruction package for Iran to help the country repair the damage done by US and Israeli bombs. Where that money will come from is unknown at present but it is possible that the US taxpayer could end up paying to rebuild a county our President went to war against on nothing but a whim.
The real points of contention, Iran’s nuclear program and the US sanctions on Iran are to be negotiated over a period of sixty days. The chances of the ‘diplomats’ coming up with a working agreement in that time can be judged by the fact that on the first scheduled day of the negotiations in Switzerland Iran refused to meet with the US because Israel was still attacking in Lebanon. Then, when Iran again threatened to close the straight Trump personally called the Iranian diplomats and threatened that they wouldn’t have a country to go back to.
Everyone who has looked at the MoU has declared it to be a disaster and any peace treaty that comes out of negotiations based upon it is certain to be a humiliating loss for the US. Trump is so desperate to get out of this war that he started so thoughtlessly that he is willing to see the country he pledged to defend suffer a bitter defeat.
Everyone knows that the repressive Iranian regime will come out of this mess stronger than before, even if it does give up its enriched nuclear material. Based on the MoU Trump is going to allow Iran to continue its Ballistic missile program and there is nothing to stop it from threatening to shut off the Straight of Hormuz anytime it wants.
From his very first casino to his second term as President everything that Trump has touched has turned to crap, just like his recent fiasco at the reflecting pool between the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument. Casinos, an airline, Trump magazine, Trump wine, Trump University all have been crap, ideas without planning, without follow through, without thought of any kind.
It is the American people who will have to deal with the crap that comes out of Trump’s thoughtless war with Iran.